Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Baltimore Orioles will welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Camden Yards in the 1 game of a divisional doubleheader. The opening pitch is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will be televising the matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Odds

The Orioles are only 11-27 SU and 14-23 ATS. The teams lost 16.8 units for moneyline bettors and 10.3 units against the spread (ATS). Baltimore has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Rays, on the other hand, are 15-20 SU and have gone 18-16 ATS. In total, the teams lost 4.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline in this young season, but have gained 2.5 units ATS. Tampa Bay has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Orioles games have a 17-19-1 over/under record so far in 2018. The Rays have an over/under record of 17-15-2.

The right-handed Chris Archer is the projected starter for Tampa Bay. Archer is 2-2 with a 5.32 ERA and 48 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA against Baltimore this year (four starts).

The Orioles will turn to righty David Hess (0-0, ERA) to the mound. Hess has zero strikeouts and zero walks to his name, as well as a WHIP. Hess has yet to face the Rays this year and did not pitch in the majors last season.

Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 5.7 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has a 5.71 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.40 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 13 games against AL East foes, Orioles starters have an ERA of 5.95 and the bullpens ERA is 3.21.

The Baltimore offense has produced 3.9 runs per contest, including 4.2 per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .292/.339/.544 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Orioles batters have been led by Manny Machado and Pedro Alvarez. Machado is hitting .354/.440/.667 with 12 home runs, 35 RBIs and 21 runs scored, while Alvarez’s line sits at .200/.304/.488 with seven homers, 14 RBIs and 14 runs.

Machado performed well against right-handed pitching at home last season. Over 265 such plate appearances, he slashed .286/.355/.534 (compared to his total season line of .260/.311/.473).

For the visiting squad, Tampa Bay’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.44 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.42, along with a WHIP of 1.21 and a K/9 of 8.91.

Rays hitters have slashed .263/.335/.397 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game this year, including 4.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over the teams last five contests (1-4 SU).

Tampa Bay’s offensive production been led by second baseman Daniel Robertson and catcher Wilson Ramos. Robertson is slashing .289/.433/.470 with 24 hits, eight RBIs and 14 runs scored, while Ramos (.308/.357/.471) is up to 32 hits, four homers, 18 RBIs and 10 runs scored.

The Rays have lost 4.5 units and are 9-12 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 11 of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Orioles have lost 11.6 units and are 9-15 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 10 of those games, compared to 14 that’ve gone under.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Orioles, ATS Winner – Rays, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Tampa Bay has recorded 19.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 19.2 over its last five.
  • The Rays have hit six home runs in their last 10 games. The Orioles have hit 13 over their last 10.