Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, Hockey

The Tampa Bay Rays are heading north to square off against their division rival Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will be showing the action and the game will get going at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Odds

Baltimore (-130) is favored over Tampa Bay (+120) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs (-130 for the under and +110 for the over). Runline odds stand at -175 for taking the Rays +1.5 runs and +155 for the Orioles -1.5.

The Rays have gone 8-13 SU this year and are 11-10 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 5.8 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in this young season, despite having gained 1.6 units ATS. The Orioles, on the other hand, are 6-17 SU and 8-15 ATS. The team’s lost 9.4 units for moneyline bettors and 7.7 units ATS.

Orioles games have had an over/under record of 9-13-1 so far in 2018. Tampa Bay has been a decent over bet with a total record of 14-7.

Jake Faria will get the start for Tampa Bay. The right-handed Faria is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA and 15 strikeouts. He has yet to face Baltimore this year, but he made three starts against the Orioles in 2017, putting together a 1-0 record against them with a 4.09 ERA and 22 strikeouts.

The Orioles will send righty Alex Cobb (0-2, 15.43 ERA) to the mound. Cobb has four strikeouts and two walks to his credit, as well as a 3.14 WHIP. Cobb did not record a start against the Rays in 2017.

Baltimore’s pitching staff has allowed 5.3 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 5.07, a WHIP of 1.55 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.4. The bullpen has a 4.48 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In 10 games against divisional foes, Orioles starters have an ERA of 5.40 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.96.

The Baltimore hitters have produced 3.2 runs per contest, including 3.7 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .217/.267/.398 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Shortstop Manny Machado and left fielder Trey Mancini have led the Orioles’ offense this year. Machado is hitting .360/.447/.708 with eight home runs, 17 RBIs and 13 runs scored, while Mancini’s line sits at .280/.348/.415 with 23 hits, seven RBIs and 10 runs.

Machado performed well against righty pitching at home in 2017, slashing .286/.355/.534 over 265 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .260/.311/.473).

In the visiting dugout, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.54 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.14, along with a K/9 of 8.36.

Rays hitters have slashed .251/.330/.375 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Tampa Bay’s offensive production been led by second baseman Daniel Robertson and left fielder Mallex Smith. Robertson is slashing .318/.474/.523 with 14 hits, five RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Smith (.344/.412/.459) is up to 21 hits, three RBIs and nine runs scored.

Compared to his total season slash line of .270/.329/.355, Smith had a little trouble hitting right-handed pitchers on the road in 2017, putting up a slash line of just .236/.276/.300 across 116 such plate appearances.

The Rays have lost 4.0 units and are 5-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in nine of those games, as opposed to four that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Orioles have lost 6.2 units and are 5-10 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in five of those games, as opposed to 10 which went under the total.

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Orioles, ATS Winner – Rays, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • The over has cashed in six of Tampa Bay’s last seven games.
  • The Orioles have lost nine of their last 10 games SU.
  • Baltimore has recorded 16.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 17.0 over its last five.
  • Both teams have hit 10 home runs over their last 10 games.