Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Hockey, NHL

The Tampa Bay Lightning at Capital One Arena in Game 6 of the NHL’s Eastern Conference Finals. The match will get going at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, May 21, and you can see the game live on NBC Sports Network.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Odds

Washington (+110) is currently the underdog to Washington (-130), and the oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at 6 goals (-120 for the under, +100 for the over).

Tampa Bay is 65-32 straight up (SU) and has earned 13.1 units for moneyline bettors this year. Through 97 regular season matches, 55 of its games have gone over the total, while 36 have gone under and just six have pushed. This 2017-18 Lightning team is 30-17 SU on the road.

The Lightning offense attempted 32.2 shots per game in the regular season, leading to 3.6 goals per contest (ranked first overall in the NHL). In the postseason, however, the team is dropped to an average of 29.5 shots on goal ( 3.3 goals per game).

Following a regular season where they converted 25.0 percent of all power-play opportunities (the third-strongest), the Lightning have been able to score on 30.2 percent of their extra-man advantages in the postseason. Their penalty kills gone from 76.0 percent in the regular season to 75.6 percent in the playoffs.

Sporting a .919 save percentage and 29.2 saves per game, Andrei Vasilevskiy (55-25-3) has been the best option in goal for Tampa Bay this year. If Tampa Bay decides to rest him, however, the team may go with Louis Domingue (7-13-1), who has a .896 save percentage and 3.35 goals against average this year.

The visiting Lightning have relied heavily on Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos this year. Kucherov (117 points) has tallied 46 goals and 71 assists, and has recorded multiple points 35 times. Stamkos has 34 goals and 68 assists to his name (and has logged a point in 64 games).

On the other side of the rink, Washington is 59-40 straight up (SU) and has earned moneyline bettors 14.4 units this season. Through 99 regular season matches, 53 of its games have gone over the total, while 41 have gone under and just five have pushed. This season, the teams 31-18 SU as the home team.

The Capitals have converted on 23.7 percent of their power play chances this year, a mark that’s good enough for seventh-best in the league. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 16th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 79.2 percent of all penalties.

Capitals skaters have been sent to the penalty box 4.1 times per game in total this season, 3.8 per game over their past five games total, and 4.0 per game over their last five at home. The teams been forced to stave off opponent power plays just 8.5 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.

Braden Holtby (27.0 saves per game) has been the top selection in goal for the Capitals. Holtby has 44 wins, 26 losses, and five OT losses to his credit and has recorded a subpar .909 save percentage and 2.82 goals against average this season.

The home team offense will be led by Alex Ovechkin (60 goals, 48 assists).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Free Picks


Pick: SU Winner – Lightning, O/U – Under

Betting Notes

  • Over Tampa Bay’s last ten games, eight of them have been decided by two or more goals (the team is 5-3 in those games).
  • Penalties and power plays could play a key role tonight. The Lightning are 31-17 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 37-20 in games where they’re in the box for fewer than 10 total penalty minutes. The Capitals are 17-13 when the team serves fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 32-21 in games where they’re in the box for less than 10 minutes.
  • Tampa Bay is 6-2 in games decided by a shootout this season while Washington is 3-1 in shootouts.
  • Washington is ranked 25th this season with 10.4 giveaways per game. That figure has improved, however, as the teams averaged 7.5 giveaways over its last 10 games and 6.0 giveaways over its last five.
  • Tampa Bay skaters have averaged 10.8 giveaways over its last five home games, a rise over its season average of 8.4 giveaways per game (the ninth-fewest in the league).