Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears – Week 4 Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) are flying north to battle the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. This early afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears

In this Sunday NFC game, Chicago is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Buccaneers are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Bears are -140. On the surface it looks like this matchup ought to offer some in-game betting possibilities.

This game’s line initially opened at -2, but has recently shifted.

The surprising Buccaneers have recorded 4.5 units so far and are 2-0 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 2-0.

The Bears have gained 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-2.

The Buccaneers have gone 2-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bears are also 2-1 SU.

The Bucs fell to Pittsburgh 30-27 in a Week 3 game where their secondary allowed the Steelers to air it out for 353 yards and three touchdowns. On the offensive side of the ball, Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 30 passes for 411 yards, three scores and three interceptions. Peyton Barber (33 yards on eight rush attempts) led the running attack. Mike Evans (six receptions, 137 yards, one TD) and O.J. Howard (six catches, 72 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.

Chicago just got a 16-14 win over Arizona a week ago. Mitchell Trubisky completed 24-of-35 passes for 220 yards and one interception. Jordan Howard (61 yards on 24 rush attempts, one TD) and Tarik Cohen (53 yards on five carries) handled the running game while Taylor Gabriel (six receptions, 34 yards) and Trey Burton (four catches, 55 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Tampa Bay’s run the ball on 39.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Chicago has an overall rush percentage of 45.0 percent. The Buccaneers have produced 72.7 rush yards per game and have just a single touchdown on the ground this year. The Bears are averaging 115.7 rushing yards per game and have two total rush TDs.

If 2018 results are any indication, then the Bears could have an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game, as their running backs has produced 4.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.4 yards per rush attempt to opponents. The Buccaneers have rushed for 3.0 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.6 to opponents.

The Bucs offense has averaged a stellar 410.0 yards in the air overall and has 11 passing score so far. The Bears have recorded 197.0 pass yards per contest and have two total pass TDs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Tampa Bay has allowed 70.7 rush yards and 375.3 pass yards per game. The Chicago defense has given up 253.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 65.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bears are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.19 to opposing QBs, while the Buccaneers have given up a staggering 8.57 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Fitzpatrick is already up to 828 yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 65 percent of his 78 attempts with seven passing scores and three interceptions. He’s got a pristine 10.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.47 over the past two games.

In the other huddle, Mitchell Trubisky has completed 47-of-70 passes for 391 yards, zero TDs and one INT. Trubisky’s ANY/A sits at a terrible 3.95 for the year and 3.84 over his past two games.

When these two teams faced one another last year, Tampa Bay knocked Chicago off soundly 29-7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears NFL Prediction

SU Winner: Buccaneers, ATS Winner: Buccaneers

Team Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers offense has created five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Bears have accounted for zero such plays.
  • The Tampa Bay defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Chicago has given up two such plays.
  • Both defenses have produced one rushing play of 20 or more yards. The Tampa Bay offense has recorded six running plays of 10+ yards while Chicago has accounted for eight such plays.
  • The Buccaneers defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bears have given up zero such runs.
  • The Chicago D has recorded twice as many sacks as Tampa Bay this season (14 to seven).
  • Tampa Bay, as a team, has averaged 2.7 yards per carry over its last two contests.
  • Chicago has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last two.
  • Over its last three matchups, Chicago is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Tampa Bay was getting 3 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 46.5. The over cashed and the spread pushed in the 30-27 defeat to Pittsburgh.
  • Chicago was getting 5 points in its last outing and the Over/Under was set at 39. The under cashed and Chicago covered in the 16-14 victory over Arizona.