St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The St. Louis Cardinals will be facing off against their divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET and the matchup will be shown on FB.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Oddsmakers have placed equal -105 moneyline odds on both of these teams. The total is sitting at 9 runs and bettors can take the over for -115 and the under for -105. Runline odds stand at +140 for taking the Cardinals -1.5 runs and -160 for the Brewers +1.5.

The Brewers are 35-21 SU and 33-22 ATS. They’ve gained 17.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 9.3 units against the spread (ATS). Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have gone 29-23 SU this year and are 24-27 ATS. Overall, the teams lost 1.4 units for moneyline bettors and 4.3 units ATS. St. Louis is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Milwaukee games have had an over/under record of 22-31-2 so far in 2018. St. Louis has also been a decent under bet with a total record of 20-27-4.

The right-handed Alex Reyes is projected to start for St. Louis. Reyes is 0-0 with an ERA. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Brewers are handing the ball to righty Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98 ERA), who has 44 strikeouts and 20 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.18. Guerra is 1-0 with four strikeouts and a 1.69 ERA in one start against St. Louis this year.

St. Louis pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 8.07 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.29, along with a WHIP of 1.17 and a K-per-9 of 8.38.

The Cardinals offense has slashed .240/.319/.392 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

St. Louis hitters have been powered by first baseman Jose Martinez and left fielder Marcell Ozuna. Martinez is hitting .305/.373/.455 with five home runs, 31 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while Ozuna (.260/.301/.337) is up to three homers, 23 RBIs and 19 runs scored.

Martinez did not seem to enjoy hitting against righty pitching on the road in 2017, putting up a slash line of .257/.333/.371 across 117 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .309/.379/.518).

For the home team, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has yielded 3.7 runs per game overall this season. The clubs starters have an ERA of 4.30, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.2. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.44, a WHIP of 1.10 and a K/9 of 10.2. In 25 games against divisional opponents, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.30 and the bullpens ERA is 3.24.

The Milwaukee offense is putting up 4.3 runs per contest, including 2.8 per game against divisional foes and 7.6 per game over its last five. The teams hit .294/.372/.480 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

The Brewers batters have been led by outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Cain is slashing .283/.389/.435 with six home runs, 16 RBIs, 35 runs and 11 steals, while Yelich’s line sits at .305/.371/.477 with six homers, 24 RBIs, 33 runs and six stolen bases.

The Cardinals have lost 3.8 units and are 16-22 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 14 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 16.4 units and are 27-15 ATS when facing a righty starter. The overs cashed in 16 of those games, compared to 24 that’ve gone under.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals have won three of their last four games SU.
  • The St. Louis defense has allowed seven errors over the last 10 games, compared to two errors for Milwaukee over its last 10.
  • The Cardinals have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.