St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick

The St. Louis Cardinals will be facing off against their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The action will get going at 1:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Midwest will broadcast the game.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Vegas is listing Cincinnati (+145) as the underdog to St. Louis (-155). The total sits at 9 runs and bettors can wager on the over for even money (+100) and the under for -120. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the odds standing at -110 for the Cardinals -1.5 runs and -110 for the Reds +1.5 runs.

The Reds are only 2-12 SU and 5-8 ATS. The team has lost 8.7 units for moneyline bettors and 5.0 units against the spread (ATS). The Cardinals are 8-7 SU and have gone 8-6 ATS. In total, the teams lost 1.6 units for moneyline bettors this year, but have gained 0.9 units ATS.

Reds games have an over/under record of 6-7 thus far in 2018. St. Louis has an over/under record of 7-7.

The Cardinals have lost 2.4 units and are 6-5 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in six of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 6.7 units and are 4-7 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in five of those games, compared to six which went under the total.

Carlos Martinez (1-1, 2.41 ERA) will get the nod for the visiting Cardinals. The right-handed Martinez struck out 217 hitters over 205 innings last year with only 71 walks while finishing the season 12-11 overall with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He made three starts against the Reds in 2017 and compiled a 1-2 record against them with a 6.62 ERA and 17 strikeouts.

The Reds are putting the ball in the hands of righty Homer Bailey (0-2, 3.24 ERA), who started 18 games last year and finished the season 6-9 overall with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. He made two starts against St. Louis a year ago and compiled a 0-2 record with a 17.18 ERA and six strikeouts.

Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 6.4 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The teams starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.93, a WHIP of 1.43 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 6.8. The bullpen has a 6.19 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In eight games against divisional opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.86 and the bullpens ERA is 5.76.

The Cincinnati offense has put up 3.0 runs per outing, including 2.6 per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .203/.263/.262 over its last five games and is 0-5 SU during that span.

The Reds offense has been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Suarez is hitting .296/.424/.630 with eight hits, seven RBIs and five runs scored, and Barnhart’s line is .265/.390/.500 with nine hits, three RBIs and four runs scored.

Compared to his total season slash line of .260/.367/.461, Suarez enjoyed batting against righty pitching at home last season, slashing .279/.380/.604 over 229 such plate appearances.

For the visitors, St. Louis pitching staff allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.59 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.23 K/9. The bullpen has managed a solid ERA of just 3.04, along with a K/9 of 9.66.

Cardinals hitters have slashed .249/.329/.417 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game this season, including 5.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over the teams last five contests (4-1 SU).

St. Louis offensive production been led by first baseman Jose Martinez and right fielder Tommy Pham. Martinez is slashing .373/.459/.608 with 19 hits, 15 RBIs and four runs scored, while Pham has a .327 average with 18 hits, two homers, five RBIs, 15 runs and five stolen bases.

Martinez seemed to have a little trouble hitting righties on the road in 2017. Across 117 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .257/.333/.371 (compared to his total season line of .309/.379/.518).

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has hit in three of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
  • The Reds have lost nine of their last 10 games SU.
  • St. Louis fielders have five errors over the last 10 games, compared to 11 errors for Cincinnati over its last 10.
  • The Cardinals have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including 10 over their last five.