St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to play their divisional nemesis Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The matchup will get going at 6:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Midwest will be showing the game.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Cincinnati (+130) as the underdog to St. Louis (-140). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -125 and the under for +105. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at +105 for the Cardinals -1.5 runs and -125 for the Reds +1.5.

The Cardinals have gone 6-7 SU this year and are 6-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline through the early portions of the year and 1.1 units ATS. The Reds are 2-10 SU and 5-6 ATS. They’ve lost 6.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.7 units ATS.

Cincinnati games have a 5-6 over/under record so far in 2018. St. Louis has an over/under record of 6-6.

The Cardinals have lost 4.4 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in five of those games, as opposed to four that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 4.7 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in four of those games, compared to five that went under the total.

Luke Weaver (1-0, 1.59 ERA) will get the nod for St. Louis. The right-handed Weaver recorded 72 strikeouts in 60 innings last year with only 17 walks while finishing the season 7-2 overall with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He made two starts against the Reds in 2017 and compiled a 2-0 record against them with a 1.64 ERA and 13 strikeouts.

The Reds are turning to righty Tyler Mahle (1-1, 4.22 ERA), who started 4 games last year and finished the season 1-2 overall with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

Cincinnati’s pitchers have given up 6.5 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 5.40, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 6.6. The bullpen has a 7.16 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In six games against NL Central opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.07 and the bullpen’s ERA is 7.59.

The Cincinnati hitters are putting up 3.2 runs per contest, including 2.8 per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .194/.263/.241 over its last five contests and is 0-5 SU during that stretch.

The Reds’ hitters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Suarez is slashing .296/.424/.630 with eight hits, seven RBIs and five runs scored, while Barnhart’s line is .276/.417/.448 with eight hits, two RBIs and three runs scored.

Suarez enjoyed batting against righties at home last year. Across 229 such plate appearances, he slashed .279/.380/.604 (compared to his total season line of .260/.367/.461).

In the other dugout, St. Louis’ pitchers have allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.34 K/9. The bullpen has managed a solid ERA of just 3.18, along with a WHIP of 1.35 and a K-per-9 of 9.13.

The Cardinals offense has slashed .241/.323/.399 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game this season, including 6.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

St. Louis’ hitters have been led by first baseman Jose Martinez and shortstop Paul DeJong. Martinez is slashing .364/.442/.614 with 16 hits, 14 RBIs and four runs scored, while DeJong is hitting .286/.327/.551 with 14 hits, four homers, six RBIs and eight runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .309/.379/.518, Martinez seemed to take a step back when hitting right-handed pitching on the road last season, putting up a slash line of .257/.333/.371 across 117 such plate appearances.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in three of St. Louis’ last seven games.
  • The Reds have lost seven of their last eight games SU.
  • Cincinnati has recorded 17.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 15.8 over its last five.
  • The Cardinals have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit four over their last 10.