St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick

The St. Louis Cardinals are ready to take on their divisional rival Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The game gets going at 7:05 p.m. ET and the action will be televised on either ATPT or FSMW.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Vegas is listing St. Louis (-110) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+100). Gamblers are able to bet on the games total with odds listed at -110 for over 8.5 runs and -110 for under 8.5. Runline odds sit at +135 for taking the Cardinals -1.5 runs and -155 for the Pirates +1.5.

The Cardinals have gone 15-10 SU this year and are 14-10 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 3.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline in this young season and 2.9 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 15-11 SU and 13-12 ATS. The team has gained 1.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.4 units ATS. Pittsburgh has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.

Pirates games have a 13-9-3 over/under record so far in 2018. The Cardinals have an over/under record of 12-11-1.

Jack Flaherty will get the nod for the visiting Cardinals. The right-handed Flaherty is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA and nine strikeouts. He has yet to face the Pirates this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Pirates are handing the ball to righty Trevor Williams (3-1, 2.15 ERA), who has 21 strikeouts and 15 walks, as well as a 1.16 WHIP. Williams made three starts against the team in 2017, putting together a 0-2 record in 2017, compiling a 0-2 record with an 8.78 ERA.

St. Louis pitchers have allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.11 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.40 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.53, along with a K/9 of 8.83.

Cardinals hitters have slashed .244/.332/.404 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

St. Louis offensive production been led by right fielder Tommy Pham and first baseman Jose Martinez. Pham is slashing .358/.469/.531 with 29 hits, nine RBIs, 22 runs and five stolen bases, while Martinez (.309/.389/.489) is up to 29 hits, three homers, 18 RBIs and nine runs scored.

Pham seemed to enjoy hitting righties on the road last year. Across 226 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .352/.438/.633 (compared to his total season line of .306/.411/.520).

In the home-team dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has allowed 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018. The teams starters have a 3.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.62 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. In eight games against NL Central foes, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.26 and the bullpens ERA is 6.23.

The Pittsburgh offense is putting up 5.0 runs per contest, including 6.6 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .276/.347/.432 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Catcher Francisco Cervelli and outfielder Starling Marte have led the Pirates hitters so far. Cervelli is hitting .306/.400/.542 with three home runs, 18 RBIs and nine runs scored, while Marte’s line sits at .284/.371/.461 with three homers, 11 RBIs, 19 runs and eight stolen bases.

Marte appeared to enjoy facing righty pitching at home last season. Across 132 such plate appearances, he slashed .374/.447/.565 (compared to his total season line of .275/.333/.379).

The Cardinals have gained 0.9 units and are 9-8 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in nine of those games, compared to seven that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 1.1 units and are 10-10 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Pittsburgh has recorded 21.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 26.6 over its last five.
  • The Cardinals have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit eight over their last 10.