St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

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Paul DeJong and the surging St. Louis Cardinals will be taking the field against their division rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in a Saturday night game. The matchup will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox Sports Ohio to catch the action.

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Odds

Sportsbooks have Cincinnati (-140) as the favorite over St. Louis (+130). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to go under 9.5 runs scored, then bookmakers are teeing up -135 odds. Taking the over can give you +115 odds. There’s a runline of Cardinals +1.5 (-170) and Reds -1.5 (+150) for this matchup.

The Cardinals are 50-46 SU and have gone 47-48 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.5 units for moneyline bettors and 2.6 units ATS. St. Louis has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 43-52 SU and 53-41 ATS. They’ve lost 5.0 units for moneyline bettors while earning 3.6 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Cincinnati games have an over/under record of 33-57-4 so far in 2019. The Cardinals have also been a decent under bet with a total record of 40-48-7.

Miles Mikolas will get the nod for the visiting Cardinals. The right-handed Mikolas is 6-9 with a 4.15 ERA and 78 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 6.30 ERA against Cincinnati this year (two starts).

The Reds are handing the ball to righty Luis Castillo (9-3, 2.41 ERA), who’s got 134 strikeouts and 56 walks as well as a 1.12 WHIP. Castillo is 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against St. Louis this year.

St. Louis’ pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.24 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 7.79 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.93, along with a WHIP of 1.36 and a K/9 of 10.25.

Cardinals hitters have slashed .244/.320/.403 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

St. Louis’ offensive production has been powered by shortstop Paul DeJong and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. DeJong is hitting .254/.334/.444 with 15 home runs, 44 RBIs and 62 runs scored, while Goldschmidt (.251/.338/.429) is up to 18 homers, 44 RBIs and 56 runs scored.

For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has given up 4.1 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.7 K/9. In 44 games against NL Central opponents, Reds starters have an ERA of 3.84 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.93.

Cincinnati’s offense is putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.7 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .290/.363/.470 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

Right fielder Yasiel Puig and third baseman Eugenio Suarez have led the Reds’ batters this year. Puig is slashing .263/.308/.500 with 22 home runs, 58 RBIs, 45 runs and 13 stolen bases, while Suarez’s line is .246/.323/.503 with 24 homers, 60 RBIs and 49 runs scored.

The Cardinals have lost 4.0 units and are 39-36 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 30 of those games, compared to 40 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 6.2 units and are 38-33 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 25 of those games, as opposed to 43 that’ve cashed the under.

Cardinals at Reds Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in just two of St. Louis’ last seven outings.
  • The Cardinals have won six of their last seven games SU while the Reds have lost five of their last six.
  • St. Louis fielders have two errors over the last 10 games, compared to eight errors for Cincinnati over its last 10.
  • The Cardinals have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
  • The Cardinals have a team OPS of .723 this season and an OPS of .724 against right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS stands at .732 overall and .710 versus righties.