SMU Mustangs vs. UCF Knights: NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, College Football, Football

The SMU Mustangs and No. 12 UCF Knights will square off on the grass at Spectrum Stadium. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPNU has the TV rights.

Betting Preview: UCF Knights vs. SMU Mustangs

SMU is the noticeable underdog here and is currently getting 24 points from bookmakers. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) pretty highly at 71 points. On the surface it appears that there should be some good live betting possibilities for this game.

With the spread opening at -25 and the over/under initially placed at 71.5, betting odds have shifted slightly.

Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this season as the Mustangs have gained 1.1 units and the Knights are up 2.0 units.

The Mustangs have gone 2-3 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AAC opponents. The Knights are 4-0 SU overall and are also 1-0 SU in conference play.

The Mustangs are on the upswing after a 63-27 win over Houston Baptist last week in which the Mustangs completed 24-of-37 passes for 409 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. William Brown went 12-for-20 for 309 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while Ben Hicks completed eight-of-12 for 61 yards and one touchdown. Braeden West (69 rushing yards on 12 attempts, two TDs) and Merek Pierce (56 yards on nine carries) led the ground attack while Reggie Roberson, Jr. (four receptions, 104 yards) and West (three catches, 25 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

UCF just earned a 45-14 win over Pittsburgh. McKenzie Milton completed 18-of-34 passes for 328 yards and four touchdowns. Adrian Killins Jr. (40 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and the signal-caller Milton (51 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) handled the running attack as Otis Anderson (four receptions, 29 yards, one TD) and Gabriel Davis (four catches, 80 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

SMU has run the ball on 50.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UCF has an overall rush percentage of 55.5 percent. The Mustangs have run for 129.4 yards per game and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Knights are logging 272.8 rush yards per game and have 13 total rushing TDs.

It appears that the Knights could have the edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has allowed only two sacks while their D-line has registered seven sacks. The Mustangs offensive line has given up 12 sacks and their defense has got to opposing QBs just eight times.

The Mustangs offensive scheme has averaged 229.4 yards through the air overall and has 12 passing scores so far. The Knights have produced 310.0 pass yards per outing and have 13 total pass TDs.

Defensively, SMU has let opponents run for an average of 182.6 yards and throw for 223.6 yards per game. The UCF defense has allowed 159.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 206.5 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 2.52 to opponents, while the Mustangs have given up a 7.04 ANY/A.

Milton has completed 63-of-105 passes for 917 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs for UCF. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 9.22 for the season and 11.24 over his past two games. In the other huddle, Brown has amassed 391 passing yards this year, and has connected on 23-of-37 attempts with four passing touchdowns and one interception. Brown’s got a sparkling 10.97 ANY/A for the year, though that number sits at 9.45 over the last two outings.

When these two teams faced each other last year, UCF won by a touchdown 31-24.

SMU Mustangs vs. UCF Knights NCAA Tip

SU Winner: UCF, ATS Winner: SMU, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • SMU was favored by 45 points in its previous game and the Over/Under going into it was 69.5. The over cashed and SMU did not cover in the 63-27 triumph over Houston Baptist.
  • As a team, SMU has produced 4.33898305084746 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.6 over its last two.
  • UCF has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its past two.
  • The UCF offense has lost zero fumbles this season while SMU has let three get away.
  • Over its last three matchups, SMU is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
  • UCF was favored by 14 points in its last matchup and the O/U going into it was 65.5. The under cashed and UCF covered in the 45-14 victory over Pittsburgh.
  • In its last three contests, UCF is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • The Mustangs offense has created seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Knights have put up three such plays.
  • The SMU defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UCF has given up one such play.
  • The SMU offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UCF has created 10 such runs.
  • The Mustangs defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Knights have given up five such runs.
  • The SMU defensive unit has eight sacks on the year while UCF has seven.