Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Seattle Mariners will be facing off against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. This AL matchup gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET and fans can catch it on both RTNW and FSDT.

Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Odds

Vegas is listing Detroit (+165) as the underdog to Seattle (-175). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for even money (+100) or the under for -120. Bettors can also wager on the games runline with the odds standing at Mariners -1.5 runs (-120) and Tigers +1.5 runs (+100).

The Mariners have gone 22-16 SU this year and are 22-14 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 7.5 units for moneyline bettors in the seasons early going and 7.3 units ATS. Seattle has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Tigers, on the other hand, are 16-22 SU and 20-16 ATS. They’ve lost 3.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 0.5 units ATS. Detroit has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.

Detroit games have had an over/under record of 15-20-1 so far in 2018. Seattle has been a decent over bet with a total record of 22-14.

The left-handed James Paxton is projected to start for the visiting Mariners. Paxton is 2-1 with a 3.40 ERA and 67 strikeouts. He has yet to face Detroit this year, but he did make two starts against the Tigers in 2017, putting together a 1-0 record against them with a 2.19 ERA and 17 strikeouts.

The Tigers will put the ball in the left hand of Blaine Hardy (0-0, 2.70 ERA), who has three punchouts and two walks this season as well as a 0.90 WHIP. Hardy did not record a start against the Mariners in 2017.

Seattle’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.78 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.12, along with a WHIP of 1.39.

The Mariners offense has slashed .260/.330/.434 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.5 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 5.6 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Seattle’s hitters have been led by right fielder Mitch Haniger and second baseman Robinson Cano, who’ve collectively swatted 14 home runs. Haniger is hitting .294/.381/.588 with 10 home runs, 30 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while Cano (.289/.383/.444) has produced four homers, 23 RBIs and 24 runs scored.

Haniger did not seem to enjoy hitting against lefty pitching last year. Across 97 plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .250/.289/.446 (his total season line was .282/.352/.491).

For the home team, Detroit’s pitchers have yielded 4.7 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.63 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

Detroit’s offense has produced 4.4 runs per outing, including 4.2 per game over its last 10 games and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .291/.352/.489 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Right fielder Nicholas Castellanos and third baseman Jeimer Candelario have led the Tigers batters so far. Castellanos is hitting .326/.386/.500 with three home runs, 23 RBIs and 20 runs scored, and Candelario’s line sits at .272/.359/.497 with five homers, 16 RBIs and 21 runs scored.

Compared to his total season slash line of .272/.320/.490, Castellanos did not seem to enjoy batting against lefty pitching at home last year, slashing .236/.288/.418 over 59 such plate appearances.

The Mariners have gained 3.9 units and are 9-3 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in five of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve gone under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Tigers have lost 1.1 units and are 4-3 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in six of those games, as opposed to one which went under the total.

Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mariners, ATS Winner – Mariners, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Seattle has posted 22.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 25.6 over its last five.
  • The Mariners have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.