San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Week 3 Free Betting Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Football, NFL

The San Francisco 49ers (+6) are traveling east to face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. FOX has the TV rights and this early afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers

In this Sunday game, Kansas City is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 6 points. The 49ers are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -230. There should be some decent live betting opportunities while the game is underway, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points.

Sharp bettors are leaning toward both the Chiefs and the over. The opening line was initially set at -4 while the total was originally 54.5.

The 49ers are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 0.0 units so far. The team’s recorded an Over-Under mark of 1-1.

The Chiefs are up 2.9 units this season. The team is 2-0 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-0.

The 49ers are 1-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Chiefs are 2-0 SU.

The Niners are coming off a 30-27 win over Detroit last week. The Niners secondary allowed the Lions to air it out for 347 yards and three touchdowns. On the offense, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 18 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns. Alfred Morris (only 48 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and Matt Breida (138 yards on 11 carries, one TD) led the running attack while Pierre Garcon (four receptions, 57 yards) and Breida (three catches, 21 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Kansas City just put together a 42-37 win over Pittsburgh last week. Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-28 passes for 326 yards and six touchdowns. Kareem Hunt (75 rushing yards on 18 attempts) led the running game as Travis Kelce (seven receptions, 109 yards, two TDs) and Sammy Watkins (six catches, 100 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

In terms of offensive play-calling, each team has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. San Francisco’s run the ball on 47.3 percent of its offensive possessions while Kansas City has a rush percentage of 48.6. The 49ers have produced 140.0 rush yards per game and have only one touchdown on the ground this year. The Chiefs are logging 116.5 rushing yards per game and have yet to record a rush TD.

It appears that the 49ers should own the advantage in all aspects of the ground game, as their running backs has generated 5.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.3 to opponents. The Chiefs have registered 4.5 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.5 to opponents.

The Niners offensive scheme has averaged 233.5 yards through the air overall and has three passing TD so far. The Chiefs have put up 291.0 pass yards per game and have 10 total pass score.

San Francisco appears to have an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s let opponents rush for an average of 107.0 yards and pass for 295.5 yards per game. The Kansas City defense has allowed 438.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 78.0 yards per game on the ground. The Niners are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.98 to opponents, while the Chiefs have given up an 8.27 ANY/A.

Mahomes has been sharper than Garoppolo of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 15.24 for the year and 13.65 across his past two outings while Garoppolo’s ANY/A is 6.13 (and 4.68 over the past two outings).

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Pick

SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Chiefs, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • Each team has lost one fumble this season.
  • Both teams have produced one pass play of 40 or more yards and four pass plays of 30+ yards.
  • Both teams have allowed zero pass plays of 40+ yards. The San Francisco defense has given up one pass play of 30+ yards while Kansas City has given up zero such plays.
  • The San Francisco offense has created zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Kansas City has created one such runs.
  • Both teams have allowed zero rushing plays of 20+ yards. The 49ers have given up one running play of 10+ yards while the Chiefs have given up four such plays.
  • The San Francisco defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks five times this season. Kansas City has produced two sacks.