San Diego State Aztecs vs. Houston Cougars ATS Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, College Basketball

The No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs (22-10), 4-point underdogs, clash against the No. 6 Houston Cougars (26-7) in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament at Intrust Bank Arena. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 142.5 points and action starts at 7:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 15, 2018.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Houston Cougars ATS Odds

In their last contest, the Cougars lost a winnable game to the eighth-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats, 56-55, while the Aztecs defeated the New Mexico Lobos, 82-75.

San Diego State dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an absurd free throw rate of 0.375 (above their season average of 0.248) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.545 (above their season average of 0.522). For those same stats, New Mexico had marks of 0.238 and 0.476, respectively. Houston, meanwhile, forced Cincinnati into a turnover percentage of 19.3 (above their season average of 14.4). Rob Gray had a good game for Houston, contributing 17 points and five rebounds. Meanwhile, Trey Kell was a key piece for San Diego State with 28 points.

This battle pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Houston ranks 29th in offensive efficiency and San Diego State is 33rd in defensive efficiency.

Just over half of the Aztecs’ games have finished over the total. San Diego State holds records of 22-10 straight up (SU) and 20-10 against the spread (ATS).

Vegas is known to place the total high when the Cougars are involved, as 16 of their 30 games have finished under the O/U total. Further, Houston is 26-7 SU and 18-11 ATS.

Rob Gray has taken his game to another level as of late for Houston, averaging 23.6 points, 6.0 assists and 1.2 steals over the last five games.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Houston Cougars ATS Pick

Pick: SU Winner – Houston, ATS Winner – Houston, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • Houston ranks 77th in three pointers allowed per game (20.3) while San Diego State ranks 246th (23.7).
  • The Cougars rank 25th in blocks allowed per game (2.5) while the Aztecs rank 127th (3.4).
  • Houston ranks 36th in rebounds per game (38.6) while San Diego State ranks 66th (37.7).
  • The Cougars rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (11.0) while the Aztecs rank 170th (13.8).
  • Houston ranks 25th in steals allowed per game (5.1) while San Diego State ranks 136th (6.3).

Bettings Trends:

  • During their last five games, the Aztecs have scored an average of 63.0 points per game (12.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 69.6 points per game (1.5 above their season average).
  • The Cougars’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.6, down from 12.5 for the season.