San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos: 10/6/2018 Free Pick

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The San Diego State Aztecs (+15) are heading east to face the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. This key conference game starts at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPNU is scheduled to have the TV rights. When these two programs met last year, Boise State got the victory 31-14.

Betting Preview: Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State is a live dog and is currently getting 15 points in this Saturday MWC game. The Aztecs are also receiving +510 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -750. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points. If the underdog strikes early, it will probably produce a solid in-game betting scenario.

The opening line was -15 while the over/under has not changed after being set initially at 51.

The Aztecs have gained 1.9 units so far and are 1-3 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-3.

The Broncos have gained 0.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-1 ATS and the over has hit in three of their games.

The Aztecs have gone 3-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any MWC competition yet. The Broncos are 3-1 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.

The Aztecs look to keep it rolling after a 23-20 victory over Eastern Michigan on September 22 in which Ryan Agnew completed only 12-of-22 passes for 176 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Chase Jasmin (94 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Juwan Washington (61 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack while Fred Trevillion (two receptions, 40 yards) and Parker Houston (two catches, 34 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Boise State is coming off of a 34-14 win over Wyoming. The defensive unit did its duty in the victory, limiting the Cowboys to just 214 passing yards and 81 yards on the ground. Nico Evans had a productive showing in the loss, recording 141 rushing yards and a score on 12 attempts for Wyoming. For Boise State, Brett Rypien completed 28-of-42 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns. Alexander Mattison (57 yards on 20 rush attempts, one TD) handled the running game as Sean Modster (seven receptions, 88 yards) and A.J. Richardson (six catches, 113 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.

San Diego State’s run the ball on 66.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Boise State has a rush percentage of 48.6 percent. The Aztecs have produced 198.3 rush yards per game and have six touchdowns on the ground this year. The Broncos are totaling 176.5 rush yards per game and have eight total rushing TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then the Broncos ought to own the edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, as their offensive line has allowed only 10 sacks while the D-line has logged 14 sacks. The Aztecs offensive line has allowed 12 sacks and their defense has got to opposing signal-callerss just eight times.

The Aztecs offensive scheme has averaged 172.3 yards in the air overall and has three passing scores so far. The Broncos have produced a superb 362.0 pass yards per game and have 13 total pass TDs.

Defensively, San Diego State has allowed 64.5 rush yards and 272.5 pass yards per game. The Boise State D has allowed 196.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 125.8 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.39 to opposing QBs, while the Aztecs have allowed an 8.45 ANY/A.

Rypien has been sharper than Agnew of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 11.67 for the season and 7.20 across his past two games while Agnew’s ANY/A is 5.02 and 5.67 over the last two outings.

San Diego State Aztecs at Boise State Broncos NCAA Pick

SU Winner: Boise State, ATS Winner: Boise State, O/U: Under

Betting Notes

  • The Boise State defense has sacked opposing QBs 14 times this year. San Diego State has registered just eight sacks.
  • Both teams have lost two fumbles this season.
  • The Aztecs offense has produced zero pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Broncos have accounted for seven such plays.
  • The San Diego State defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Boise State has given up two such plays.
  • The San Diego State offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Boise State has created eight such runs.
  • The Aztecs defense has allowed zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Broncos have given up five such runs.
  • Boise State was the underdog by 15 points in its last matchup and the Over/Under was 46.5. The over cashed and Boise State covered in the team’s 34-14 win over Wyoming.
  • Over its last three games, Boise State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three matches, San Diego State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • San Diego State was favored by 11 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 48.5. The under cashed and San Diego State did not cover in the 23-20 victory over Eastern Michigan.
  • San Diego State, as a team, has averaged 4.59285714285714 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.1 over its last two.
  • Boise State has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.5 over its past two.