San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Washington Nationals are trying to avoid losing their fourth straight game they play host to the San Diego Padres at Nationals Park. The game gets underway 7:05 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will broadcast this NL matchup.

San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Odds

Vegas has listed San Diego (+165) as the underdog to Washington (-175). Bettors can wager on the games total with odds sitting at -110 for over 8.5 runs and -110 for under 8.5. The games current runline odds stand at -135 for taking the Padres +1.5 runs and +115 for the Nationals -1.5.

The Nationals are 24-21 SU and 22-22 ATS. They’ve lost 3.6 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 0.8 units against the spread (ATS). Washington has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Padres are 20-28 SU and have gone 23-24 ATS. Overall, the teams lost 3.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline in this young season and 8.0 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Nationals games have an over/under record of 19-23-2 so far in 2018. Padres games have gone under 24 times, gone over 21 times and pushed on two occasions.

Robbie Erlin will get the nod for the visiting Padres. The left-handed Erlin is 1-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 24 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Nationals this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Nationals will put the ball in the left hand of Gio Gonzalez (4-2, 2.36 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), who’s got 55 strikeouts and 23 walks this season. Gonzalez is 0-0 with eight strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against San Diego this year.

Washington’s pitchers have given up 3.8 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The clubs starters have an ERA of 2.95, a WHIP of 1.05 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 10.3. The bullpen has a 4.76 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.7 K/9.

The Washington hitters have put up 4.4 runs per contest, including 3.3 per game over its last 10 games and 3.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .185/.267/.309 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Nationals hitters have been led by outfielder Bryce Harper and shortstop Trea Turner. Harper is hitting .224/.387/.507 with 13 home runs, 31 RBIs and 31 runs scored, and Turner is hitting .267 with six homers, 17 RBIs, 28 runs and 13 steals.

Harper had a minor drop-off in production when facing lefties at home in 2017. In 69 such plate appearances, he slashed .295/.362/.328 (his overall season line was .317/.411/.596).

In the visiting dugout, San Diego’s pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.28 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.08, along with a K-per-9 of 9.57.

The Padres offense has slashed .229/.299/.367 on its way to 3.9 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 5.0 per game over the teams last five outings (4-1 SU).

San Diego’s offense has been powered by first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Christian Villanueva. Hosmer is slashing .268/.366/.482 with six home runs, 20 RBIs and 24 runs scored, while Villanueva (.250/.322/.568) is up to 12 homers, 26 RBIs and 20 runs scored.

Putting up a slash line of .284/.327/.433 across 208 plate appearances, Hosmer didn’t perform especially well against lefty pitching last season (compared to his total season line of .318/.385/.498).

The Padres have lost 0.3 units and are 6-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in eight of those games, compared to seven that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Nationals have lost 9.5 units and are 6-8 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to nine that went under.

San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Padres have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
  • The San Diego defense has allowed two errors over the last 10 games, compared to seven errors for Washington over its last 10.