San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick

The San Diego Padres will be squaring off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET and this NL matchup will be shown on ATPT and FSSD.

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

San Diego (+130) is the underdog to Pittsburgh (-140) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs. Odds for betting on the games total sit at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. You can also bet on the games runline with the most recent odds sitting at -170 for the Padres +1.5 runs and +150 for the Pirates -1.5.

The Padres are 19-28 SU and are 22-24 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 5.0 units for moneyline bettors in the seasons early going and 8.9 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 26-19 SU and 22-22 ATS. They’ve gained 6.3 units for moneyline bettors and 1.4 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Pirates games have an over/under record of 22-17-5 thus far in 2018. The Padres have an over/under record of 20-24-2.

The right-handed Jordan Lyles will get the nod for the visiting Padres. Lyles is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 32 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Pirates this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Pirates are putting the ball in the hands of righty Trevor Williams (5-2, 2.72 ERA), who has 35 strikeouts and 20 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.13. Williams did not record a start against the Padres in 2017.

As a unit, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has allowed 4.3 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starters have a 4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.81 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 10.0 K/9.

Pittsburgh’s offense is putting up 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.2 per game over its last 10 games and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .244/.339/.388 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Pirates batters have been led by outfielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Cervelli. Marte is hitting .308/.366/.503 with six home runs, 19 RBIs, 30 runs and 10 stolen bases, while Cervelli’s line is .286/.406/.536 with six homers, 24 RBIs and 16 runs.

Marte seemed to enjoy hitting right-handed pitchers at home in 2017, slashing .374/.447/.565 over 132 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .275/.333/.379).

For the visitors, San Diego’s pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 4.83 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.32 K/9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.08, along with a K/9 of 9.70.

The Padres offense has slashed .229/.300/.367 on its way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.6 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Christian Villanueva have led San Diego’s hitters. Hosmer is hitting .270/.370/.491 with six home runs, 20 RBIs and 23 runs scored, while Villanueva is slashing .242/.317/.547 with 11 homers, 24 RBIs and 19 runs scored.

The Padres have lost 4.7 units and are 16-15 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 12 of those games, compared to 17 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 4.3 units and are 18-17 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in 15 of those games, compared to 15 which went under the total.

San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • San Diego has posted 19.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.6 over its last five.
  • The Padres have hit six home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.