San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The San Diego Padres are set to face the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. This NL showdown will get going at 4:10 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to Fox Sports San Diego.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Miami (+100) as the underdog to San Diego (-110). The total sits at 7.5 runs and gamblers can take the over or the under for -110. Gamblers can also bet on the games runline with the most recent odds standing at Padres -1.5 runs (+135) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-155).

The Padres are 29-36 SU and are 33-31 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 0.6 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 5.1 units ATS. San Diego’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 23-40 SU and 30-32 ATS. The teams lost 4.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 9.9 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven.

Neither side has established itself as an obvious over/under bet this year. Marlins games have a 31-31 over/under record so far in 2018. The Padres have an over/under record of 32-30-2.

Tyson Ross is getting the start for the visiting Padres. The right-handed Ross is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 71 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with four strikeouts and a 5.06 ERA against Miami this year.

The Marlins are handing the ball to righty Dan Straily (2-2, 3.50 ERA), who’s got 27 strikeouts and 22 walks, as well as a 1.39 WHIP. Straily is 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 6.35 ERA over one starts against San Diego this year.

San Diego’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.02 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 8.10 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.28, along with a K-per-9 of 9.28.

Padres hitters have slashed .232/.300/.373 on their way to 3.9 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.1 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Left fielder Jose Pirela and first baseman Eric Hosmer have led San Diego’s hitters. Pirela is slashing .278/.331/.359 with 69 hits, 19 RBIs and 36 runs scored, while Hosmer (.289/.373/.470) has produced 67 hits, seven homers, 28 RBIs and 31 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 5.1 runs per game overall this year. The clubs starters have an ERA of 4.49, a WHIP of 1.32 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 5.49 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 8.6 K/9.

The Miami hitters are putting up 3.5 runs per contest, including 3.7 per game over its last 10 games and 4.8 per game over their last five. The team has hit .257/.355/.433 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Third baseman Brian Anderson and second baseman Starlin Castro have led the Marlins hitters this year. Anderson is hitting .304/.377/.426 with three home runs, 30 RBIs and 32 runs scored, and Castro’s line is .292/.336/.403 with three homers, 24 RBIs and 38 runs.

The Padres have gained 1.1 units and are 25-19 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 19 of those games, compared to 23 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 3.3 units and are 21-26 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 24 that’ve gone under.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Marlins have won three of their last four games SU.
  • San Diego has recorded 21.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 19.8 over its last five.
  • The Padres have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.