San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat ATS Prediction

Jose VasquezArticles, Basketball, NBA

The San Antonio Spurs (6-3) will travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to take on the Miami Heat (4-5). The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 7, 2018.

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat Betting Odds

The last time the Heat played, they beat the Detroit Pistons, 120-115, as 2.5-point underdogs. The Spurs, meanwhile, were defeated by the Orlando Magic, 117-110, and were not able to cover as 7.5-point underdogs. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Miami game went 15.5 points over the projected point total of 219.5, while the San Antonio game went 20 points over the projected point total of 207.

Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had a free throw rate of 0.204 (below their season average of 0.220) and a turnover percentage of 13.2 (worse than their season average of 12.8). Detroit was 0.173 and 14.7, respectively, for those same stats. San Antonio, on the other hand, did a terrific job of getting and making free throws (22-25; 88.0 percent). Josh Richardson played well for Miami, recording 27 points and eight rebounds. Meanwhile, DeMar DeRozan played a pivotal role for San Antonio with 25 points, seven rebounds and five assists.

The Spurs dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the last matchup, San Antonio won 117-105. The Spurs’ turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Heat. San Antonio had a rate of 10.6, while Miami posted a mark of 18.9.

Vegas is known to set the total low when the Spurs are involved, as 66.7 percent of their games have gone over the total. San Antonio holds records of 6-3 straight up (SU) and 5-4 against the spread (ATS).

Similarly to San Antonio, games featuring the Heat also have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (77.8 percent). Moreover, Miami owns records of 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS.

It will be a battle of opposite tempos as the fast-paced Heat will look to push the more grind-it-out Spurs. Since the 2017-18 season, the Heat rank eighth in possessions per game while the Spurs are 20th. Moreover, the Spurs rank first in turnover percentage (12.8 percent), while the Heat rank 22nd in opponents’ turnover percentage (13.8 percent).

San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Odds Pick

Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes (2017-Present):

  • The Spurs rank 11th in assists per game (22.8) while the Heat rank 12th in assists allowed per game (21.5).
  • Miami ranks second in blocks per game (5.5) while San Antonio ranks 23rd (5.3).
  • The Spurs rank 10th in second chance points allowed per game (12.0) while the Heat rank 26th (12.5).
  • Miami ranks 13th in fast break points allowed per game (11.1) while San Antonio ranks 28th (13.1).
  • Miami ranks fifth in rebounds per game (43.8) while San Antonio ranks 14th (44.0).
  • The Spurs rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.9) while the Heat rank 24th (16.2).
  • The Heat rank 17th in points in the paint per game (44.7) while the Spurs rank 26th (43.4).
  • Miami ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while San Antonio ranks 27th (24.3).
  • In games where they allow less than 100 points, San Antonio is 35-11 and Miami is 28-6.
  • The Spurs are 43-17 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 37-26.