The Denver Nuggets (36-30) will be at home in Pepsi Center when they square off against the Sacramento Kings (21-45). Action starts at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 11, 2018, and it can be seen on NBC Sports – California.
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
The last time the Kings played, they beat the Orlando Magic, 94-88. With 18 points and 13 rebounds, Sacramento’s Kosta Koufos had a solid game. The Kings had a great offensive rebounding percentage of 31.0 (above their season average of 21.6) and held the Magic to an effective field goal percentage of 0.481 (below the 0.549 mark opponents have averaged against Sacramento this season).
The Nuggets come in on a high note after topping the Los Angeles Lakers in their last matchup, 125-116. Denver rallied around Jamal Murray, who was the teams high scorer with 22 points on 5-for-12 shooting. Denver played a nearly flawless game. They had a superb free throw rate of 0.313 (above their season average of 0.192) and a turnover percentage of 11.1 (better than their season average of 13.4). For those same stats, Los Angeles put up marks of 0.130 and 13.2, respectively.
The offensive glass should be a huge advantage for Denver in this meeting. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.0 percent), while Sacramento ranks 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (76.7 percent). Additionally, the Kings rank 30th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.144), while the Nuggets rank fourth in opponents FTA rate (0.174).
Of Sacramento’s 66 games, 35 have finished over the O/U total, while 33 of Denver’s 66 games have finished over the projected point total. The Nuggets have the superior straight up (SU) record (36-30 vs. 21-45), but both teams have the same against the spread (ATS) record (30-33-3).
These two teams have met three times already this season, with the Nuggets leading the series two games to one. In the most recent matchup, Willie Cauley-Stein had 17 points and seven steals and the Kings, who were 8.5-point underdogs, defeated the Nuggets 106-98. The two teams combined to score 204 points, which was just 1.5 points below the projected point total of 205.5 points. The Kings’ 8.1 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Nuggets, who had a mark of 22.7.
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
Prediction: SU Winner – Kings, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under
- The Kings rank sixth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.3) while the Nuggets rank 25th (47.2).
- Sacramento ranks eighth in steals per game (8.2) while Denver ranks 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
- Sacramento ranks 12th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.9) while Denver ranks 29th (18.9).
- Denver ranks 17th in blocks per game (4.6) while Sacramento ranks 26th (4.1).
- Sacramento is 15-15-3 ATS on the road with 17 overs, 15 unders and 1 push.
- At home, Denver is 18-16-1 ATS with 18 unders and 17 overs.
- Sacramento is 13-5 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Denver is 13-2.
- When reaching the century mark, the Kings are 15-18 and the Nuggets are 30-21.
- The Nuggets rank fourth in second chance points per game (13.9) while the Kings rank 20th (11.6).
- Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (24.8) while Sacramento ranks 26th (21.3).
- The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Kings rank 21st (43.8).
- The Nuggets rank seventh in fast break points per game (13.8) while the Kings rank 20th in fast break points allowed per game (12.3).
- Denver ranks ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.4) while Sacramento ranks 28th (23.6).
- Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Sacramento is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
- The Nuggets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.6, up from 1.0 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 100.8 points per game (1.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 102.0 points per game (4.8 below their season average).