Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers: Week 3 Free Pick

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The Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) are making a trip west to battle the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. This late afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.

Betting Preview: San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

San Francisco is a live dog and is currently getting 1 point in this matchup. The Steelers are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the 49ers are -105. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 46.5 points, and if one squad can create a bunch of points early, it will likely produce a nice in-game betting opportunity.

The line opened at 0 but has recently moved higher to 1. The game’s total hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 46.5.

The hapless Steelers are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.7 units this season. The team has posted an O/U record of 1-1.

The 49ers have gained 2.0 units this year. The team is 2-0 ATS and also has an O/U record of 1-1.

The Steelers are just 0-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the 49ers are 2-0 SU.

The Steelers dropped one to Seattle 28-26 in a Week 2 nailbiter where the defense allowed the Seahawks to pass for 300 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 151 yards. Chris Carson had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 60 rushing yards on 15 attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers completed 20-of-34 passes for 187 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Mason Rudolph went 12-for-19 for 112 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while Ben Roethlisberger completed eight-of-15 for 75 yards. James Conner (just 33 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss while Vance McDonald (seven receptions, 38 yards, two TDs) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (five catches, 84 yards) shared the receiving duties.

San Francisco just picked up a 41-17 win over Cincinnati a week ago. The defensive secondary allowed the Bengals to air it out for 311 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Boyd was a bright spot in the loss, posting 122 yards on 10 catches for Cincinnati. For San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo completed 17-of-25 passes for 297 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Raheem Mostert (83 rushing yards on 13 attempts) and Matt Breida (121 yards on 12 carries) mounted the ground game in the win while Deebo Samuel (five receptions, 87 yards, one TD) and George Kittle (three catches, 54 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Pittsburgh’s run the ball on 26.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while San Francisco has an overall rush percentage of 58.3 percent. The Steelers have rushed for 56.5 yards per game and have just a single touchdown via handoffs this year. The Niners are totaling 178.5 rushing yards per game and have two total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season can translate to this game, then it seems like the Niners ought to have an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has generated 4.8 yards per carry while the defense has allowed 3.2 YPC to opponents. The Steelers have registered 3.9 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Steelers offensive scheme has averaged 231.5 yards in the air overall and has two passing TD so far. The Niners have produced 239.5 pass yards per contest and have four total pass scores.

Defensively, Pittsburgh has let opponents rush for an average of 125 yards and pass for 336.5 yards per game. The San Francisco defense has allowed 252.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 73.0 yards per game on the ground. The Niners are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.06 to opponents, while the Steelers have given up an ugly 9.87 ANY/A.

Garoppolo probably has the advantage over Ben Roethlisberger in this matchup. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 12.48 for the season and 8.40 over his last two games while Roethlisberger’s ANY/A is 4.25 and 4.67 over his last two.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Steelers, ATS Winner: Steelers, O/U: Under

Team Betting Notes

  • The San Francisco defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs seven times this season. Pittsburgh has registered five sacks.
  • San Francisco has lost one fumble this season while Pittsburgh has yet to lose any.
  • The Steelers offense has recorded two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the 49ers have accounted for zero such plays.
  • Both teams have allowed two pass plays of 40 yards or more. The Pittsburgh defense has given up four pass plays of 30+ yards while San Francisco has permitted three such plays.
  • The Pittsburgh offense has created one rushing play of 20 yards or more, while San Francisco has created two such runs.
  • The Steelers defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the 49ers have given up zero such runs.