Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Washington Nationals will go for their fourth consecutive victory when they play host to the Pittsburgh Pirates at Nationals Park. Mid-Atlantic Sports Network will televise this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Odds

Washington (-190) is the favorite against Pittsburgh (+180) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 7.5 runs. Odds for wagering on the games total stand at -110 for both the over and the under. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at -125 for the Pirates +1.5 runs and +105 for the Nationals -1.5.

The Nationals are 14-16 SU and 13-16 ATS. The team has lost 9.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.3 units against the spread (ATS). Washington has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Pirates are 17-13 SU and have gone 17-12 ATS. In total, the teams accumulated 4.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline in this young season and 6.3 units ATS. Pittsburgh’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.

Nationals games have an over/under record of 12-15-2 so far in 2018. Pirates games have gone over 14 times, gone under 11 times and pushed on four instances.

The right-handed Ivan Nova is projected to start for the visiting Bucs. Nova is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 30 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Nationals this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 4.50 ERA and two strikeouts across two innings).

The Nationals will put the ball in the right hand of Stephen Strasburg (2-3, 3.63 ERA), who’s got 43 strikeouts and 10 walks as well as a 1.03 WHIP. Strasburg made two starts against the Pirates in 2017, posting a perfect 2-0 record with a 1.98 ERA and 11 strikeouts.

As a unit, Washington’s pitching staff has given up 4.2 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starters have an ERA of 3.43, a WHIP of 1.12 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 4.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 10.1 K/9.

The Washington offense is putting up 4.6 runs per contest, including 4.8 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .263/.340/.468 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Nationals hitters have been led by Bryce Harper and Matt Adams. Harper is hitting .250/.459/.554 with nine home runs, 22 RBIs and 25 runs scored, and Adams is batting .296 with five homers, 13 RBIs and 10 runs.

In the other dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.91 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.08 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.68, along with a K-per-9 of 9.27.

The Pirates offense has slashed .257/.330/.414 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game this year, including 4.6 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.6 per game over the teams last five contests (3-2 SU).

Pittsburgh’s offense has been powered by catcher Francisco Cervelli and left fielder Corey Dickerson. Cervelli is slashing .313/.394/.575 with four home runs, 20 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Dickerson is hitting .311/.354/.534 with four homers, 18 RBIs and 17 runs scored.

The Pirates have gained 3.5 units and are 14-10 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in nine of those games, as opposed to 11 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Nationals have lost 1.9 units and are 8-10 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in nine of those games, compared to eight which went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Pirates have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Nationals have hit 12 over their last 10.
  • Pittsburgh has averaged 23.4 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 contests and 22.2 over its last five.