Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be taking on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. This NL matchup begins at 7:05 p.m. ET and you can catch it on either ATPT or NSPA.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas has placed identical moneyline odds (-105) on both of these teams. Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -115 for over 8.5 runs and -105 for under 8.5. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds standing at +140 for the Pirates -1.5 runs and -160 for the Phillies +1.5.

The Pirates are 12-7 SU and have gone 10-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 5.8 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going and 3.5 units ATS. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 11-7 SU and 6-11 ATS. The team has gained 2.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 7.8 units ATS.

Philadelphia games have an over/under record of 8-8-1 so far in 2018. The Pirates have an over/under record of 11-6-1.

Right-hander Ivan Nova will get the start for Pittsburgh. Nova is 2-1 with a 4.88 ERA and 22 strikeouts. He has yet to face Philadelphia this year, but he made two starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 1-1 record with a 4.72 ERA and four strikeouts.

The Phillies will send righty Ben Lively (0-1, 5.87 ERA) to the mound. Lively has 17 strikeouts and three walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.63. Lively only made one start against the Pirates in 2017 (0-1, 4.50 ERA and four strikeouts across four innings).

As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 3.8 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have a 3.14 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.7 K/9.

The Philadelphia offense is putting up 5.3 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game over its last 10 games and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .224/.354/.315 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Phillies’ hitters have been led by left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Hoskins is slashing .327/.486/.618 with three home runs, 14 RBIs and 13 runs scored, and Hernandez’s line is .286/.430/.413 with 18 hits, eight RBIs, 14 runs and five stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 6.90 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.26, along with a K-per-9 of 8.72.

The Pirates offense has slashed .256/.329/.422 on its way to 5.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Right fielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Cervelli have led Pittsburgh’s offense. Marte is slashing .282/.386/.521 with 20 hits, seven RBIs, 16 runs and five steals, while Cervelli is hitting .278/.375/.519 with 15 hits, two homers, 12 RBIs and six runs scored.

Putting up a slash line of .250/.289/.317 across 128 such plate appearances, Marte did not seem to enjoy batting against right-handed pitching on the road last season (compared to his overall season slash line of .275/.333/.379).

The Pirates have gained 6.2 units and are 8-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in seven of those games, as opposed to six that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 2.1 units and are 3-10 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in five of those games, compared to seven that went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has cashed in four of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • Pittsburgh has recorded 19.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 18.6 over its last five.
  • The Pirates have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 10 over their last 10.