Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The game gets going at 4:05 p.m. ET and this NL matchup will be shown on ATPT and NSPA.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Vegas is listing Philadelphia (-165) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+155). Bettors can wager on the games total with odds sitting at even money (+100) for over 7.5 runs and -120 for under 7.5. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds sitting at Pirates +1.5 runs (-140) and Phillies +-1.5 runs (+120).

The Phillies are 12-7 SU and 7-11 ATS. The team has gained 3.3 units for moneyline bettors while earning 6.8 units against the spread (ATS). Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven. The Pirates are 12-8 SU and have gone 10-9 ATS. In total, the teams gained 4.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year and 2.5 units ATS. Pittsburghhas covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has cashed in three of those seven.

Phillies games have an over/under record of 8-8-2 so far in 2018. The Pirates have an over/under record of 11-6-2.

Left-hander Steven Brault is projected to start for the visiting Pirates. Brault is 2-1 with a 4.74 ERA and 11 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Phillies this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Phillies will send righty Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.22 ERA) to the mound. Nola has 15 strikeouts and nine walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 0.95. Nola made two starts against the team in 2017, putting together a 1-1 record in 2017, posting a 1-1 record with a 0.64 ERA and 13 strikeouts.

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.74 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 6.77 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.24, along with a WHIP of 1.23.

Pirates hitters have slashed .253/.327/.416 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game this season, including 3.4 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 2.6 per game over the teams last five contests (1-4 SU).

Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by right fielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Cervelli. Marte is slashing .280/.379/.507 with 21 hits, seven RBIs, 16 runs and six steals, while Cervelli (.281/.382/.509) is up to 16 hits, two homers, 12 RBIs and seven runs scored.

Marte did not do as well hitting against right-handed pitchers on the road in 2017. Across 128 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .250/.289/.317 (his total season line was .275/.333/.379).

For the home team, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed 3.6 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.05, a WHIP of 1.16 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.2. The bullpen has a 3.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.7 K/9.

The Philadelphia offense has put up 5.1 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .233/.344/.321 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Phillies batters have been led by left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Hoskins is hitting .310/.474/.586 with three home runs, 15 RBIs and 13 runs scored, while Hernandez line is .299/.434/.433 with 20 hits, eight RBIs, 15 runs and five stolen bases.

Hernandez enjoyed hitting against lefty pitching at home last year. Across 78 such plate appearances, he slashed .352/.410/.577 (compared to his total season line of .296/.376/.425).

The Pirates have gained 5.0 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in seven of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 4.3 units and are 3-1 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in three of those games, compared to one that’ve cashed the under.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Pirates have lost four of their last five games SU.
  • Pittsburgh has posted 17.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 14.6 over its last five.
  • The Pirates have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit seven over their last 10.