Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins Free Preview

The Miami Marlins are playing host to the Pittsburgh Pirates at Marlins Park. This NL showdown begins at 1:10 p.m. ET and fans can catch the game on either ATPT or FSFL.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Pittsburgh (-135) is favored against Miami (+125) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8.5 runs (-120 for the under and +100 for the over). Runline odds sit at +110 for betting the Pirates -1.5 runs and -130 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Pirates are 10-4 SU and have gone 8-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 5.5 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 4.0 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Marlins are 4-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. The team has lost 2.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.2 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Marlins games have an over/under record of 7-6 so far in 2018. Pirates games have gone over nine times, gone under four times and pushed on zero occasions.

The Pirates have gained 6.8 units and are 7-3 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to four that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 1.1 units and are 3-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in five of those games, as opposed to four that’ve gone under.

Ivan Nova (1-1, 5.19 ERA) will get the nod for the visiting Bucs. The right-handed Nova started 31 games last year and finished the season 11-14 overall with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He made two starts against the Marlins in 2017 and put together a 2-0 record against them with a 0.00 ERA and 11 strikeouts.

The Marlins are rolling with righty Jose Urena (0-2, 5.06 ERA) as their starter. Urena started 28 games last year and finished the season 14-7 overall with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have given up 5.5 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.0 K/9.

The Miami offense is putting up 3.3 runs per outing, including 2.8 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .253/.311/.355 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Marlins hitters have been led by third baseman Brian Anderson and shortstop Miguel Rojas. Anderson is hitting .288/.413/.423 with 15 hits, nine RBIs and eight runs scored, and Rojas is batting .291 with 16 hits, four RBIs and six runs.

Anderson seemed to enjoy hitting right-handed pitching at home last year, slashing .303/.425/.455 across 40 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .262/.337/.369).

In the other dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 6.81 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 6.46, along with a K/9 of 6.85.

The Pirates offense has slashed .265/.343/.451 on its way to 5.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.3 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the teams last five outings (3-2 SU).

Outfielders Corey Dickerson and Gregory Polanco have led Pittsburgh’s hitters. Dickerson is slashing .347/.385/.592 with 17 hits, 10 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Polanco (.220/.333/.600) is up to 11 hits, five homers, 15 RBIs and 11 runs scored.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Pirates have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
  • Pittsburgh has recorded 23.3 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20.0 over its last five.