Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be taking on their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The game gets going at 3:10 p.m. ET and the matchup will be shown on either ATPT or FSOH.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Odds

The Reds are 88-72 against the spread (ATS), but just 67-94 straight up (SU). They’ve lost 15.8 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 1.9 units (ATS). The Pirates are 81-79 SU and have gone 78-81 ATS. In total, the team’s accumulated 5.2 units for moneyline bettors, but have lost 12.2 units ATS.

Cincinnati games have had an over/under record of 77-78-5 in 2018. Pittsburgh has been a decent under bet with a total record of 70-79-10.

Clay Holmes will get the start for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Holmes (1-3, 7.25 ERA) has recorded 18 punchouts in 22.1 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against Cincinnati this year.

The Reds are preparing to start righty Sal Romano (8-11, 5.37 ERA), who has 104 strikeouts and 52 walks, as well as a 1.45 WHIP. Romano is 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA in one start against Pittsburgh this year.

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.98 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.63 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.06, along with a K-per-9 of 9.50.

Pirates hitters have slashed .253/.320/.406 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson continue to lead Pittsburgh’s offense. Marte is hitting .276/.327/.453 with 19 home runs, 71 RBIs, 80 runs and 33 stolen bases, while Dickerson is hitting .300 with 13 homers, 55 RBIs and 65 runs scored.

For the home team, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.03, a WHIP of 1.43 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.8. The bullpen has a 4.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In 75 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 5.24 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.07.

The Cincinnati offense is putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .232/.284/.372 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Shortstop Jose Peraza and second baseman Scooter Gennett have paced the Reds’ offense this year. Peraza is hitting .290/.327/.419 with 14 home runs, 58 RBIs, 85 runs and 23 stolen bases, while Gennett’s line is .310/.357/.490 with 23 homers, 92 RBIs and 86 runs scored.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Pittsburgh has tallied 17 extra-base hits over its last five games. Cincinnati has 10 XBH over its last five.
  • Cincinnati has posted 15.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 17.4 over its last five.
  • The Pirates have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit eight over their last 10.