Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates will head west to play the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Fox Sports Arizona will televise this NL matchup and the opening pitch will be at 9:40 p.m. ET.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Pittsburgh (+145) is the underdog to Arizona (-155) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at eight runs (-110 for both the over and the under). The games current runline odds sit at -150 for taking the Pirates +1.5 runs and +130 for the Diamondbacks -1.5.

The Pirates are 32-33 SU and have gone 28-36 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 5.0 units for moneyline gamblers and 10.3 units ATS. Pittsburgh’s covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are 35-29 SU and 32-31 ATS. They’ve gained 5.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.4 units ATS. Arizona has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Neither side has been a strong over/under play this year. Arizona games have a 30-31-2 over/under record so far in 2018. Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 30-28-6.

Joe Musgrove will get the nod for Pittsburgh. The right-handed Musgrove is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 17 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Diamondbacks this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Diamondbacks will put the ball in the left hand of Patrick Corbin (6-2, 2.87 ERA, 0.94 WHIP), who’s got 105 strikeouts and 22 walks. Corbin only made one start against the Pirates in 2017 (1-0, 6.00 ERA and three strikeouts across six innings).

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.15 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 7.63 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.29, along with a WHIP of 1.26.

The Pirates offense has slashed .252/.325/.412 on its way to 4.6 runs scored per game this season, including 4.0 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 5.2 per game over the teams last five contests (2-3 SU).

Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte. Dickerson is hitting .319/.352/.480 with five home runs, 32 RBIs and 31 runs scored, while Marte is hitting .280 with seven homers, 25 RBIs, 33 runs and 13 stolen bases.

In the home-team dugout, Arizona’s pitching staff has allowed 3.6 runs per game overall in 2018. The clubs starting pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has posted a solid ERA of just 2.57, a WHIP of 1.11 and a K/9 of 7.9.

The Arizona offense is putting up 4.2 runs per contest, including 6.4 per game over its last 10 games and 7.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .290/.371/.538 over its last five contests and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Left fielder David Peralta and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt have led the Diamondbacks batters this year. Peralta is slashing .276/.339/.476 with 11 home runs, 31 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Goldschmidt’s line is .254/.364/.509 with 12 homers, 31 RBIs and 43 runs.

The Pirates have lost 2.3 units and are 5-10 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 10 of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have lost 2.9 units and are 19-21 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 18 of those games, compared to 22 that went under.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh has posted 18.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 20.4 over its last five.
  • The Pirates have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks have hit 19 over their last 10.