Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Free Preview

Victor TrejosArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Milwaukee Brewers will head east to play their divisional rival Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be airing the matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Pittsburgh (+115) as the underdog to Milwaukee (-125). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -120 for over eight runs and +100 for under eight. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at Brewers -1.5 runs (+120) and Pirates +1.5 runs (-140).

The Pirates are 77-74 straight up (SU) and 73-78 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 4.0 units for moneyline bettors while earning 13.1 units (ATS). Pittsburgh has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Brewers are 87-66 SU and have gone 79-74 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 15.2 units for moneyline bettors and 1.1 units ATS. Milwaukee’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven.

Pirates games have a 66-75-10 over/under record in 2018. The Brewers have also been a decent under bet with a total record of 71-78-4.

Jhoulys Chacin will get the nod for the visiting Brewers. The right-handed Chacin (14-8, 3.54 ERA) has recorded 149 strikeouts in 178 innings so far. He’s 0-3 with 19 strikeouts and a 2.51 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (five starts).

The Pirates are handing the ball to righty Ivan Nova (9-9, 4.07 ERA), who has 109 strikeouts and 31 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.25. Nova is 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 1.69 ERA across two starts against Milwaukee this year.

Pittsburgh’s pitchers have yielded 4.3 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have a 3.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.07 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 66 divisional games, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.44 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.63.

The Pittsburgh offense is putting up 4.3 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .263/.324/.371 over its last five contests and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.

Outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson have led the Pirates’ hitters this year. Marte is slashing .278/.321/.454 with 19 home runs, 67 RBIs, 76 runs and 33 stolen bases, while Dickerson’s line sits at .294/.324/.458 with 11 homers, 51 RBIs and 61 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.80 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.59, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K/9 of 10.20.

The Brewers offense has slashed .250/.322/.419 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.7 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Milwaukee’s offensive production has been powered by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, who have combined to drive in 130 runs. Yelich is slashing .319/.385/.569 with 31 home runs, 93 RBIs, 104 runs and 20 steals. Cain (.308/.398/.423) is up to 10 homers, 37 RBIs, 82 runs and 28 stolen bases.

The Brewers have gained 15.5 units and are 60-53 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 48 of those games, as opposed to 61 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 9.8 units and are 54-54 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 41 of those games, compared to 58 that went under.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The over has cashed in only two of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
  • Pittsburgh has posted 22.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.0 over its last five.
  • The Brewers have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.