Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates are ready to face off against their divisional rival Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will broadcast the action and the first pitch will be at 2:10 p.m. ET.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Vegas is listing Milwaukee (-160) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+150). The total is sitting at 8.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -105 or the under for -115. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at -145 for the Pirates +1.5 runs and +125 for the Brewers -1.5.

The Brewers are 85-64 straight up (SU) and 77-71 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 18.3 units for moneyline bettors and 1.8 units (ATS). Milwaukee has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Pirates, on the other hand, have gone 73-74 SU this year and are 71-75 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 2.0 units for moneyline gamblers and 11.9 units ATS. Pittsburgh’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in three of those seven.

Milwaukee games have had an over/under record of 71-73-4 in 2018. The Pirates have been a decent under bet with a total record of 65-71-10.

Trevor Williams will get the nod for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Williams is 12-9 with a 3.28 ERA and 108 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Milwaukee this year.

The Brewers are handing the ball to righty Jhoulys Chacin (14-7, 3.54 ERA), who has 145 strikeouts and 63 walks, as well as a 1.20 WHIP. Chacin is 0-2 with 15 strikeouts and a 2.28 ERA over four starts against Pittsburgh this year.

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 7.49 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.09, along with a K-per-9 of 9.65.

Pirates hitters have slashed .253/.320/.406 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game this year, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. Marte is slashing .272/.317/.450 with 19 home runs, 66 RBIs, 75 runs and 32 steals, while Dickerson (.289/.320/.449) is up to 11 homers, 49 RBIs and 58 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has given up 4.2 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.68 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. In 66 divisional games, Brewers starters have an ERA of 3.74 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.08.

The Milwaukee hitters have put up 4.5 runs per contest, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .261/.333/.406 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Brewers’ batters have been led by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is hitting .315/.384/.560 with 30 home runs, 89 RBIs, 101 runs and 19 stolen bases, and Cain’s line is .313/.402/.429 with 10 homers, 36 RBIs, 82 runs and 28 stolen bases.

The Pirates have gained 4.8 units and are 52-52 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 40 of those games, as opposed to 55 that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 18.6 units and are 58-50 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 48 of those games, compared to 56 that went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has hit in five of Milwaukee’s last seven games.
  • The Pittsburgh defense has allowed four errors over the last 10 games, compared to 12 errors for Milwaukee over its last 10.
  • Both teams have hit 10 home runs over their last 10 games.