Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be squaring off against their divisional rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET and the matchup will be televised on both ATPT and FSOH.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Cincinnati (+125) as the underdog to Pittsburgh (-135). Bettors can gamble on the game’s total with odds posted at -110 for over 8.5 runs and -110 for under 8.5. Gamblers can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at Pirates -1.5 runs (+110) and Reds +1.5 runs (-130).

The Pirates have gone 81-78 SU this year and are 77-81 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 4.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having lost 13.2 units ATS. Pittsburgh’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 66-94 SU and 88-71 ATS. They’ve lost 14.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 2.9 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the total has gone under in all seven of them.

Cincinnati games have had an over/under record of 76-78-5 in 2018. Pittsburgh has been a decent under bet with a total record of 69-79-10.

The right-handed Jameson Taillon is projected to start for the visiting Pirates. Taillon is 14-9 with a 3.16 ERA and 172 strikeouts. He’s 3-1 with 27 strikeouts and a 2.84 ERA against Cincinnati this year (four starts).

The Reds are turning to righty Michael Lorenzen (3-2, 3.35 ERA), who’s got 52 strikeouts and 32 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.39. Lorenzen is 0-0 with three strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA against Pittsburgh this year.

Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.98 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.61 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.08, along with a K-per-9 of 9.46.

The Pirates offense has slashed .254/.320/.407 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson continue to lead Pittsburgh’s hitters. Marte is hitting .276/.327/.453 with 19 home runs, 71 RBIs, 80 runs and 33 stolen bases, while Dickerson (.299/.330/.475) is up to 13 homers, 55 RBIs and 65 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has allowed 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.15 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In 74 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 5.32 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.12.

Cincinnati’s offense is putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 1.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .222/.282/.341 over its last five games and is 0-5 SU during that stretch.

The Reds’ offense has been led by shortstop Jose Peraza and second baseman Scooter Gennett. Peraza is slashing .291/.329/.421 with 14 home runs, 57 RBIs, 85 runs and 23 stolen bases, and Gennett’s line is .310/.357/.490 with 23 homers, 92 RBIs and 86 runs.

The Pirates have gained 9.9 units and are 55-55 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 42 of those games, as opposed to 59 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 16.0 units and are 59-52 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 53 of those games, compared to 54 that went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Pittsburgh has recorded 20 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Cincinnati has eight XBH over its last five.
  • The Reds have dropped seven of their last eight games SU.
  • The Pittsburgh defense has allowed three errors over its last five games, compared to eight errors for Cincinnati over its last five.
  • The Pirates have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.