Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Chicago Cubs will play host to the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field. NBC Sports Chicago will televise the action and the game will get going at 8:05 p.m. ET.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Odds

The Pirates are 80-77 SU and are 76-80 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 6.0 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 12.6 units ATS. Pittsburgh is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 92-66 SU and 77-80 ATS. The team has gained 0.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 3.3 units ATS. Chicago has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Cubs games have an over/under record of 69-85-3 in 2018. Pittsburgh has also been a decent under bet with a total record of 68-78-10.

The right-handed Trevor Williams is the probable starter for Pittsburgh. Williams is 14-9 with a 3.04 ERA and 122 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with nine strikeouts and a 1.38 ERA against Chicago this year (two starts).

The Cubs are sending lefty Jon Lester (17-6, 3.43 ERA) to the mound. Lester has 146 strikeouts and 60 walks to his name, as well as a 1.31 WHIP. Lester is 3-1 with 25 strikeouts and a 3.72 ERA across five starts against Pittsburgh this year.

As a unit, Chicago’s pitchers have yielded 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 3.92 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.37 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 72 games against NL Central opponents, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.43 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.78.

The Chicago offense is putting up 4.7 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .267/.337/.372 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Cubs’ hitters have been led by second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Baez is hitting .293/.327/.562 with 34 home runs, 111 RBIs, 98 runs and 21 stolen bases, while Rizzo is batting .280 with 24 homers, 97 RBIs and 70 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 7.62 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.11, along with a K/9 of 9.44.

The Pirates offense has slashed .254/.320/.407 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. Marte is slashing .275/.322/.451 with 19 home runs, 71 RBIs, 77 runs and 33 stolen bases, while Dickerson is hitting .298/.330/.474 with 13 homers, 54 RBIs and 65 runs scored.

The Pirates have lost 3.9 units and are 21-25 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 26 of those games, compared to 19 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 3.3 units and are 59-63 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 53 of those games, compared to 66 that went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has hit in three of Chicago’s last seven games.
  • The Pirates have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
  • Pittsburgh has averaged 22.1 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 outings and 22.4 over its last five.