The Denver Nuggets (19-17) will be at home in Pepsi Center when they go head-to-head with the Phoenix Suns (15-24). The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 218 points with Denver opening as an 11-point favorite. Action begins at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Preview
The Suns barely escaped the Atlanta Hawks in their last game, 104-103. Devin Booker was the games leading scorer with 34 points on 9-for-17 shooting. Phoenix played a nearly flawless game. They had a great effective field goal percentage of 0.552 (above their season average of 0.494) and a free throw rate of 0.247 (above their season average of 0.226). Atlanta was 0.471 and 0.241, respectively, for those same stats.
The last time the Nuggets played, they were defeated by the Philadelphia 76ers, 107-102. With 19 points, 13 rebounds and six assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic put together a good outing. Philadelphia held the Nuggets to an effective field goal percentage of 0.443 (below their season average of 0.528). Denver, on the other hand, did an excellent job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (25-34; 73.5 percent).
The offensive glass should be a huge edge for Denver in this battle. The Nuggets currently rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (27.2 percent), while Phoenix ranks 27th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.0 percent). Furthermore, the Suns, who rank fourth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.227), will face a tough challenge against the Nuggets, who rank fourth in opponents FTA rate (0.167).
Of Phoenix’s 38 games that accepted bets, 20 have finished over the projected point total, while 20 of Denver’s 36 games have finished under the projected point total. The Nuggets have the better straight up (SU) record (19-17 vs. 15-24), but both teams are right around the .500 mark against the spread (ATS).
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Suns, it’s been T.J. Warren, who has averaged 24.4 points and 5.4 rebounds, while the Nuggets have gotten solid contributions from Trey Lyles (15.8 points and 6.8 rebounds).
This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams, after the Nuggets won all four matchups last season. In the most recent matchup, Denver won 123-112. Denver made good use of their 42 trips to the free throw line, making 37 of them (88.1 percent). Phoenix, on the other hand, was 24-32 (75.0 percent).
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Odds Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
- The Nuggets rank seventh in assists per game (23.3) while the Suns rank 29th (20.5).
- Denver ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.8) while Phoenix ranks 25th (15.2).
- Denver ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.2) while Phoenix ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).
- Denver ranks eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.5) while Phoenix ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (27.4).
- On the road, Phoenix is 11-6-1 ATS with 10 overs and 8 unders.
- At home, Denver is 9-7 ATS with 9 unders and 7 overs.
- When holding opponents below 100 points, Phoenix is 5-2 and Denver is 10-2.
- In games where they score more than 100 points, the Suns are 11-15 and the Nuggets are 16-11.
- The Nuggets rank 14th in steals per game (7.7) while the Suns rank 27th (6.6).
- Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.4) while Phoenix ranks 28th in second chance points allowed per game (14.2).
- The Nuggets average 48.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Suns rank 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.2).
- The Nuggets average 4.6 blocks per game, which ranks 20th in the league. The Suns rank 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
- Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (40.9) while Phoenix ranks 25th (45.2).
- Denver is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Phoenix is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Nuggets average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.6, up from 1.4 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 106.0 points per game (0.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.8 points per game (4.3 below their season average).