Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The New York Mets will play host to the Philadelphia Phillies at Citi Field. The action will get going at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to SportsNet New York.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds

New York (-150) is hosting this one as the favorite over Philadelphia (+140) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 7.5 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at +105 for the over and -125 for the under. The game’s current runline odds stand at -155 for picking the Phillies +1.5 runs and +135 for the Mets -1.5.

The Mets are 63-77 straight up (SU) and 67-71 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 12.7 units for moneyline bettors and 11.1 units (ATS). New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 74-66 SU and have gone 67-72 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 3.5 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 14.1 units ATS. Philadelphia’s covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

New York games have had an over/under record of 61-70-7 in 2018. Philadelphia has also been a decent under bet with a total record of 61-73-5.

Zach Eflin is getting the nod for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Eflin (9-6, 4.05 ERA) has racked up 102 strikeouts in 111 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against New York this year (two starts).

The Mets are handing the ball to righty Noah Syndergaard (10-3, 3.33 ERA), who’s got 128 strikeouts and 26 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.21. Syndergaard is 0-1 with 12 strikeouts and a 5.59 ERA over two starts against Philadelphia this year.

New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The team’s starters have a 3.77 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.00 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 57 games against divisional opponents, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.64 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.04.

The New York offense is putting up 4.1 runs per contest, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .262/.306/.424 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto have led the Mets’ hitters this year. Rosario is hitting .256/.296/.381 with seven home runs, 43 RBIs, 63 runs and 18 stolen bases, while Conforto is batting .230 with 21 homers, 58 RBIs and 63 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.95 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.94, along with a K/9 of 9.28.

The Phillies offense has slashed .236/.316/.396 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez continue to lead Philadelphia’s offense. Herrera is slashing .264/.317/.439 with 21 home runs, 65 RBIs and 60 runs scored, while Hernandez is hitting .251/.359/.354 with 11 homers, 45 RBIs, 82 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Phillies have gained 3.8 units and are 52-54 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 45 of those games, as opposed to 57 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 6.6 units and are 48-50 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 45 of those games, as opposed to 48 that’ve gone under.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • Philadelphia has tallied 15 extra-base hits over its last five contests. New York has 16 XBH over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit nine over their last 10.
  • The Philadelphia defense has allowed zero errors over its last five games, compared to four errors for New York over its last five.