Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will head south to play their divisional rival Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. The game gets underway 1:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida is in line to showcase the action.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds

Vegas is listing Miami (+130) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-140). The total stands at 8.5 runs and bettors can take either the over or the under for -110. You can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds coming in at Phillies -1.5 runs (+105) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-125).

The Phillies are 72-64 SU and have gone 66-69 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 6.8 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 12.1 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 54-83 SU and 71-65 ATS. The team’s lost 2.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 8.1 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Miami games have had an over/under record of 69-63-4 in 2018. Philadelphia has been a decent under bet with a total record of 59-71-5.

Vince Velasquez will get the start for Philadelphia. The right-handed Velasquez is 9-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 142 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 with 13 strikeouts and a 0.73 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).

The Marlins are putting the ball in the right hand of Jose Urena (4-12, 4.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), who has 110 punchouts and 42 walks this season. Urena is 0-2 with 13 strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA over three starts against Philadelphia this year.

As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have given up 5.1 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.43, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.6. The bullpen has a 5.32 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In 58 games against NL East foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.42 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.24.

Miami’s hitters have put up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .285/.363/.448 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have paced the Marlins’ batters this year. Castro is slashing .289/.341/.412 with 11 home runs, 50 RBIs and 72 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .275/.359/.402 with 10 homers, 58 RBIs and 76 runs.

In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.88 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.03, along with a WHIP of 1.23 and a K-per-9 of 9.36.

Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.317/.396 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez continue to lead Philadelphia’s offense. Herrera is slashing .267/.321/.444 with 21 home runs, 65 RBIs and 58 runs scored, while Hernandez (.253/.359/.355) has produced 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 82 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Phillies have gained 5.8 units and are 51-52 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 44 of those games, compared to 55 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 0.9 units and are 51-51 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 50 of those games, compared to 48 which went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia has recorded 13 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Miami has 15 XBH over its last five.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 20.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.0 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.