Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick

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Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies will be hitting the diamond against their NL East nemesis Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in a Saturday showdown. NBC Sports Philadelphia will broadcast the matchup and the game gets going at 6:10 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds

Las Vegas has Miami (+110) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-120). You can play matchup’s total with current odds listed at -115 for over 9 runs and -105 for under 9. This game currently has a runline of Phillies -1.5 (+125) and Marlins +1.5 (-145).

The Marlins are 63-63 against the spread (ATS), but just 46-81 straight up (SU). The team has lost 11.2 units for moneyline bettors and 9.6 units ATS. The Phillies are 66-61 SU and have gone 59-67 against the spread. Overall, the club has lost 2.5 units for moneyline bettors and 8.3 units ATS.

Miami games have a 57-59-10 over/under record in 2019. The Phillies have an over/under record of 59-63-4.

The right-handed Zach Eflin is the probable starter for the visiting Phillies. Eflin (7-11, 4.57 ERA) has recorded 101 strikeouts in 122 innings so far. He’s 1-1 with 10 strikeouts and a 4.74 ERA against Miami this year (three starts).

The Marlins will put the ball in the right hand of Jordan Yamamoto (4-4, 4.31 ERA), who’s got 66 strikeouts and 26 walks as well as a 1.04 WHIP. Yamamoto is 1-0 with 11 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA across two starts against Philadelphia this year.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.62 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.14 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.66, along with a K/9 of 9.05.

Phillies hitters have slashed .246/.325/.419 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Philadelphia’s offense has been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura. Hernandez is hitting .283/.332/.397 with eight home runs, 54 RBIs and 56 runs scored, while Segura (.287/.333/.435) has produced 11 homers, 52 RBIs and 68 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Miami’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.44, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 5.14 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 61 games against divisional opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.98 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.87.

Miami’s offense is putting up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.7 per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .280/.332/.434 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Marlins’ offense has been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .264/.287/.394 with 13 home runs, 65 RBIs and 44 runs scored, and Anderson’s line sits at .261/.342/.468 with 20 homers, 66 RBIs and 57 runs.

The Phillies have gained 4.2 units and are 45-47 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 43 of those games, compared to 45 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 9.2 units and are 44-49 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 39 of those games, compared to 47 that went under the total.

Phillies vs. Marlins Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has hit in four of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • The Philadelphia defense has coughed up three errors over the last 10 games, compared to 10 errors for Miami over its last 10.
  • The Phillies have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit eight over their last 10.
  • The Phillies have a total OPS of .744 this season and an OPS of .733 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS sits at .670 overall and .658 versus righties.