Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will be taking on their NL East foe Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the matchup. The opening pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds

Vegas has listed Miami (+145) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-155). The total is sitting at 8 runs and bettors can wager on the over for +105 and the under for -125. Runline odds sit at -110 for taking the Phillies -1.5 runs and -110 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Phillies have gone 16-13 SU this year and are 10-18 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 2.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline in the seasons early going, despite having lost 11.0 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 11-18 SU and 14-14 ATS. The teams lost 0.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.6 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread in each of its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Miami games have a 14-14 over/under record so far in 2018. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 14-11-3.

The right-handed Aaron Nola will get the start for Philadelphia. Nola is 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 28 strikeouts. He has yet to face Miami this year, but he made four starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 1-3 record with a 7.59 ERA and 29 strikeouts.

The Marlins will turn to righty Jose Urena (0-4, 4.91 ERA), who has 26 strikeouts and 10 walks to his credit as well as a WHIP of 1.30. Urena made two starts against the Phillies in 2017, putting together a 1-0 record with a 3.00 ERA and eight strikeouts.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.07 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.02 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.21, along with a WHIP of 1.24.

Phillies hitters have slashed .232/.327/.371 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over the teams last five outings (1-4 SU).

Philadelphia’s offense has been powered by outfielders Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera. Hoskins is slashing .301/.455/.527 with four home runs, 20 RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Herrera has a .337 average with three homers, 13 RBIs and 16 runs scored.

For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has allowed 5.0 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.40, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.89 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 10.3 K/9. In eight games against divisional opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 6.56 and the bullpens ERA is 5.35.

The Miami offense has put up 3.4 runs per contest, including 3.3 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over its last five. The teams hit .242/.299/.391 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.

First baseman Justin Bour and third baseman Brian Anderson have led the Marlins batters so far. Bour is slashing .253/.356/.448 with five home runs, 14 RBIs and nine runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .264/.371/.377 with 28 hits, 16 RBIs and 13 runs.

Anderson performed well against right-handed pitching at home last season, slashing .303/.425/.455 across 40 such plate appearances (his total season line was .262/.337/.369).

The Phillies have lost 2.1 units and are 6-16 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 10 of those games, as opposed to 10 that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 0.1 units and are 10-11 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in 10 of those games, compared to 11 which went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Phillies have lost five of their last six games SU while the Marlins have won six of their last seven SU.
  • Miami has posted 19.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 19.0 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.