Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins are playing host to their NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Park. The game gets underway 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will showcase the matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Miami (+140) is coming into this one as the underdog to Philadelphia (-150) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this game at 7.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at -105 for the Phillies -1.5 runs and -115 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Phillies are 73-65 SU and are 66-71 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 4.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having lost 14.1 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 55-84 SU and 72-66 ATS. They’ve lost 2.1 units for moneyline bettors and 8.1 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Miami games have an over/under record of 69-65-4 in 2018. Phillies games have gone under 72 times, gone over 60 times and pushed on five occasions.

Nick Pivetta will get the nod for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Pivetta (7-10, 4.66 ERA) has racked up 168 strikeouts in 140 innings so far. He’s 1-0 with 16 strikeouts and a 1.54 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).

The Marlins will turn to righty Sandy Alcantara (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who’s got two strikeouts and five walks as well as a 1.60 WHIP. Alcantara hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year and did not record a start against them in 2017.

As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 4.46 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.27 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In 60 games against NL East opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.50 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.08.

Miami’s hitters have put up 3.7 runs per contest, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .267/.328/.388 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have paced the Marlins’ offense this year. Castro is slashing .288/.340/.412 with 11 home runs, 51 RBIs and 72 runs scored, and Anderson is batting .271 with 10 homers, 58 RBIs and 76 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.93 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.99, along with a K-per-9 of 9.32.

Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.317/.396 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Philadelphia’s offensive production has been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera, who have combined to drive in 110 runs. Hernandez is hitting .254/.361/.359 with 11 home runs, 45 RBIs, 82 runs and 17 stolen bases, while Herrera is hitting .263/.316/.437 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 59 runs scored.

The Phillies have gained 4.4 units and are 51-53 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 44 of those games, compared to 56 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 1.1 units and are 52-52 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 50 that went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has hit in four of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • The Phillies have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit nine over their last 10.
  • Philadelphia has posted 20.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 16.4 over its last five.