Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins are facing off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Park. The opening pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Odds

Miami (+160) is coming into this one as the underdog to Philadelphia (-170) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs. Odds for betting on the games total sit at -120 for the under and +100 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the games spread with the runline odds sitting at -120 for the Phillies -1.5 runs and +100 for the Marlins +1.5.

The Marlins are 51-44 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 39-57 straight up (SU). The teams gained 2.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 2.6 units (ATS). Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Phillies are 53-40 SU and have gone 41-51 ATS. Overall, the teams gained 12.8 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 18.1 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Marlins games have had an over/under record of 49-44-2 so far in 2018. The Phillies have been a decent under bet with a total record of 39-48-5.

Aaron Nola will get the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Nola is 12-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 126 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Miami this year.

The Marlins will turn to Trevor Richards (2-5, 5.24 ERA) to the mound. Richards has 53 punchouts and 29 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.61. Richards is 0-0 with two strikeouts and a 6.75 ERA in one start against Philadelphia this year.

As a unit, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. The teams starters have an ERA of 4.68, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 4.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 30 games against NL East opponents, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.27 and the bullpens ERA is 7.28.

The Miami offense is putting up 3.8 runs per contest, including 3.7 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .302/.389/.390 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have led the Marlins offense this year. Castro is hitting .293/.340/.412 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 57 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .285 with seven homers, 46 RBIs and 52 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.99 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.01, along with a K-per-9 of 9.35.

Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.322/.393 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over the teams last five contests (4-1 SU).

Philadelphia’s hitters have been paced by right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez, who have combined to drive in 80 runs. Herrera is hitting .276/.328/.462 with 16 home runs, 52 RBIs and 46 runs scored, while Hernandez (.270/.378/.378) is up to eight homers, 28 RBIs, 63 runs and 14 steals.

The Marlins have gained 2.7 units and are 34-35 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 36 of those games, compared to 31 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

    The over has cashed in only one of Philadelphia’s last seven games.

    The Phillies have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit 10 over their last 10.

    Philadelphia has averaged 21.9 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 outings and 20.6 over its last five.

    The Phillies have won four of their last five games SU.