Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will be squaring off against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. NBC Sports Philadelphia will showcase this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 10:10 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Odds

Philadelphia (+155) is entering this one as the underdog against Los Angeles (-165) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). The games current runline odds stand at -140 for taking the Phillies +1.5 runs and +120 for the Dodgers -1.5 runs.

The Dodgers are 25-29 SU and 21-32 ATS. The teams lost 21.8 units for moneyline bettors and 12.6 units against the spread (ATS). Los Angeles has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Phillies are 30-22 SU and have gone 24-27 ATS. In total, the teams accumulated 4.8 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 4.9 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

Neither team has established itself as a strong over/under bet this season. Dodgers games have an over/under record of 26-26-1 so far in 2018. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 23-25-3.

Zach Eflin will get the nod for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 24 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Dodgers this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 2.57 ERA and four strikeouts across seven innings).

The Dodgers will turn to righty Ross Stripling (2-1, 1.74 ERA) to the mound. Stripling has 50 strikeouts and nine walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.19. Stripling did not record a start against the Phillies in 2017.

Los Angeles pitching staff has given up 3.9 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The clubs starters have an ERA of 3.36, a WHIP of 1.15 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 10.0. The bullpen has a 4.01 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.

The Los Angeles hitters have put up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.2 per game over its last 10 games and 4.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .244/.305/.388 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.

Outfielders Matt Kemp and Chris Taylor have led the Dodgers hitters this year. Kemp is hitting .341/.371/.530 with six home runs, 26 RBIs and 18 runs scored, while Taylor’s line is .243/.331/.438 with seven homers, 19 RBIs and 36 runs scored.

Compared to his total season slash line of .288/.354/.496, Taylor didn’t do as well batting against righties at home last year, slashing .236/.295/.416 across 193 plate appearances.

In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starters own a 3.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.98 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.56, along with a K-per-9 of 9.19.

The Phillies offense has slashed .237/.324/.397 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including 3.6 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 4.0 per game over the teams last five outings (2-3 SU).

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have paced Philadelphia’s hitters. Herrera is slashing .328/.393/.508 with seven home runs, 32 RBIs and 25 runs scored, while Hernandez is hitting .269/.380/.431 with seven homers, 20 RBIs, 38 runs and 10 stolen bases.

The Phillies have gained 1.0 units and are 17-20 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 17 of those games, as opposed to 18 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Dodgers have lost 21.3 units and are 11-23 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 23 of those games, as opposed to 11 that’ve cashed the under.

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Dodgers, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia has posted 17.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 19.2 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.