Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET and this NL matchup will be televised on both NSC+ and NSPA.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs Odds

The Cubs are 33-24 SU and 28-28 ATS. They’ve lost 1.4 units for moneyline bettors while earning 0.3 units against the spread (ATS). The Phillies are 32-26 SU and have gone 26-31 ATS. Overall, the teams gained 4.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline, but have lost 10.1 units ATS.

Chicago games have an over/under record of 24-31-1 so far in 2018. Phillies games have gone under 29 times, gone over 24 times and pushed on four occasions.

The right-handed Aaron Nola is getting the start for the visiting Phillies. Nola is 7-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 74 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Cubs this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Cubs are turning to lefty Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.30 ERA), who has 57 strikeouts and 29 walks to his name as well as a WHIP of 1.41. Quintana only made one start against the Phillies in 2017 (0-1, 10.80 ERA and seven strikeouts across five innings).

Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.34 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.84 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.57, along with a K/9 of 9.27.

Phillies hitters have slashed .233/.317/.384 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game this season, including 2.6 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 1.8 per game over the teams last five outings (2-3 SU).

Philadelphia’s hitters have been led by right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Herrera is slashing .304/.367/.467 with seven home runs, 32 RBIs and 26 runs scored, while Hernandez has a .264 average with seven homers, 21 RBIs, 39 runs and 10 stolen bases.

In the home-team dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff has allowed 3.6 runs per game overall in 2018. The teams starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.67, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 2.58, a WHIP of 1.21 and a K/9 of 9.0.

The Chicago offense is putting up 5.2 runs per outing, including 5.0 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .296/.364/.398 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

Third baseman Kris Bryant and second baseman Javier Baez have led the Cubs offense this year. Bryant is slashing .293/.402/.512 with eight home runs, 28 RBIs and 33 runs scored, while Baez line sits at .265/.296/.553 with 14 homers, 45 RBIs, 35 runs and eight stolen bases.

The Phillies have gained 4.3 units and are 8-8 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 4.0 units and are 20-22 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 23 that went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in four of Chicago’s last seven games.
  • Chicago has posted 27.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 27.6 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games. The Cubs have hit 11 over their last 10.