Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will be taking on their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. The game gets underway 7:35 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Southeast will broadcast the matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Vegas is listing Atlanta (-110) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+100). Bettors are able to gamble on the game’s total with odds sitting at -105 for over 8.5 runs and -115 for under 8.5. You can also bet on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at Phillies +1.5 runs (-210) and Braves +-1.5 runs (+175).

The Phillies are 10-6 SU and are 5-10 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 2.2 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season, despite having lost 6.8 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 9-7 SU and 11-4 ATS. The team has gained 6.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.0 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in six of those seven.

Atlanta games have an over/under record of 5-7-3 so far in 2018. The Phillies have an over/under record of 7-7-1.

Vince Velasquez will get the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Velasquez is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 17 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 13.50 ERA against Atlanta this year.

The Braves will turn to righty Brandon McCarthy (2-0, 3.31 ERA), who has 12 strikeouts and six walks as well as a 1.29 WHIP. McCarthy is 1-0 with five strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA in one start against Philadelphia this year.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starters own a 3.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 7.83 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.24, along with a WHIP of 1.19.

Phillies hitters have slashed .228/.330/.384 on their way to 5.3 runs scored per game this year, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Outfielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led Philadelphia’s offense. Hoskins is hitting .327/.485/.592 with 16 hits, 13 RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Hernandez has a .291 average with 16 hits, two homers, five RBIs and 13 runs scored.

In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 3.9 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starting pitching staff has a 3.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.13, a WHIP of 1.41 and a K/9 of 9.4. In 11 games against divisional foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.18 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.11.

The Atlanta offense has produced 5.3 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .266/.358/.404 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies have led the charge for the Braves’ batters this year. Freeman is slashing .286/.467/.500 with 16 hits, 12 RBIs and 12 runs scored, while Albies has put up a line of .310/.338/.662 with five homers, 11 RBIs and 16 runs.

Compared to his total season slash line of .307/.403/.586, Freeman performed well against right-handed pitching at home last year, slashing .362/.475/.638 over 160 such plate appearances.

The Phillies have lost 2.1 units and are 2-9 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 5.7 units and are 10-3 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in four of those games, compared to six that went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The Phillies have won seven of their last eight games SU.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 24.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 22.2 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit nine over their last 10.