Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Miami Marlins are facing off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Marlins Park. Fox SportsNet Florida is in line to showcase the matchup. The game is slated to get going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Odds

Vegas has listed Philadelphia (-140) as the favorite over Miami (+130). The total sits at 7.5 runs and bettors can take either the over or the under for -110. Gamblers can also bet on the games spread with the runline odds sitting at Phillies -1.5 runs (+105) and Marlins 1.5 runs (-125).

The Phillies have gone 16-11 SU this year and are 10-16 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 4.7 units for moneyline bettors over the early part of the year, despite having lost 9.0 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 9-18 SU and 12-14 ATS. They’ve lost 2.4 units for moneyline bettors and 3.6 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.

Miami games have an over/under record of 13-13 so far in 2018. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 12-11-3.

The right-handed Jake Arrieta will get the nod for the visiting Phils. Arrieta is 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 18 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with five strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).

The Marlins will turn to righty Dan Straily (0-0, ERA) to the mound. Straily has zero strikeouts and zero walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of . Straily hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year and did not record a start against them in 2017.

Miami’s pitching staff has yielded 5.1 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The teams starters have a 4.39 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.29 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 10.4 K/9. In six games against divisional foes, Marlins starters have an ERA of 7.36 and the bullpens ERA is 7.18.

The Miami hitters have produced 3.3 runs per contest, including 2.7 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .228/.303/.389 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that span.

The Marlins offense has been led by first baseman Justin Bour and third baseman Brian Anderson. Bour is slashing .250/.357/.417 with four home runs, 13 RBIs and eight runs scored, and Anderson is hitting .245 with 24 hits, 12 RBIs and 11 runs scored.

Anderson appeared to enjoy facing righties at home in 2017, slashing .303/.425/.455 across 40 such plate appearances (his total season line was .262/.337/.369).

In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.18 K/9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.19, along with a WHIP of 1.24 and a K-per-9 of 9.28.

The Phillies offense has slashed .232/.327/.370 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the teams last five outings (2-3 SU).

Philadelphia’s offense has been powered by outfielders Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera. Hoskins is hitting .318/.468/.553 with four home runs, 19 RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Herrera is hitting .337/.390/.505 with three homers, 13 RBIs and 16 runs scored.

The Phillies have gained 0.3 units and are 6-14 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in eight of those games, compared to 10 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 2.2 units and are 8-11 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The overs hit in nine of those games, compared to 10 that’ve cashed the under.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Phillies have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.
  • Miami has recorded 16.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.8 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have lost three of their last four games SU while the Marlins have won four of their last five SU.