Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Matchup

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies are ready to square off against their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. Fox Sports Southeast will be showing the action and the game will get underway at 7:35 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Atlanta (+100) is coming into this one as the underdog to Philadelphia (-110) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 8.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -125 for the over and +105 for the under. The game’s current runline odds stand at +135 for taking the Phillies -1.5 runs and -155 for the Braves +1.5.

The Phillies are 9-6 SU and are 5-10 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 2.2 units for moneyline gamblers in the season’s early going, despite having lost 6.8 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS. They’ve gained 6.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.0 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.

Atlanta games have an over/under record of 5-7-3 thus far in 2018. The Phillies have an over/under record of 7-7-1.

The right-handed Nick Pivetta (1-0, 2.70 ERA) will get the start for the visiting Phillies. Pivetta recorded 140 strikeouts across 133 innings last year (26 starts) while finishing the season 8-10 overall with a 6.02 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. He made three starts against Atlanta in 2017 and put together a 3-0 record against the Braves with a 2.12 ERA and 13 strikeouts.

The Braves are rolling with righty Mike Foltynewicz (1-1, 2.93 ERA) as their starter. Foltynewicz struck out 143 hitters in 153 innings last year (with 59 walks), while finishing the season 10-13 overall with a 4.79 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He recorded three starts against the Phillies a year ago and compiled a 1-1 record with a 3.00 ERA and 16 strikeouts.

As a unit, Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 3.8 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.68, a WHIP of 1.40 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.8. The bullpen has posted a solid ERA of just 2.73, a WHIP of 1.33 and a K/9 of 9.3. In 10 divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.50 and the bullpen’s ERA is 1.47.

The Atlanta hitters have produced 5.6 runs per contest, including 5.6 per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .260/.350/.420 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

First baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies have led the Braves’ hitters so far. Freeman is slashing .308/.486/.538 with 16 hits, 12 RBIs and 12 runs scored, and the line for Albies stands at .328/.348/.701 with five homers, 11 RBIs and 16 runs.

Freeman especially relished batting against righty pitching at home last season. In 160 such plate appearances, he slashed .362/.475/.638 (compared to his overall season line of .307/.403/.586).

For the visitors, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.39 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.09 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.54, along with a K-per-9 of 8.44.

The Phillies offense has slashed .228/.324/.390 on its way to 5.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

Philadelphia’s offensive production been powered by outfielders Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera. Hoskins is slashing .341/.508/.614 with 15 hits, 11 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Herrera (.340/.397/.491) has produced 18 hits, four RBIs and nine runs scored.

The Phillies have lost 2.1 units and are 2-9 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in four of those games, as opposed to six that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 5.7 units and are 10-3 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to six which went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Braves, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Braves have won three of their last four games SU.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 23.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 21.2 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 10 over their last 10.