Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies will head south to SunTrust Park to square off against their division rival Atlanta Braves. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Southeast is in line to televise the action.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Odds

The Braves are 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS. The team has gained 4.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.0 units against the spread (ATS). Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven. The Phillies have gone 9-5 SU this year and are 4-9 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 2.2 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in this young season, but have lost 6.8 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Braves games have had an over/under record of 5-6-3 so far in 2018. The Phillies have an over/under record of 6-6-1.

The Phillies have lost 0.8 units and are 2-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 4.5 units and are 9-3 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in four of those games, compared to five that went under.

Aaron Nola (1-0, 1.96 ERA) will get the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Nola recorded 184 strikeouts over 168 innings last year (with only 49 walks) and finished the season 12-11 overall with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He made two starts against Atlanta in 2017 and compiled a 2-0 record against the Braves with a 1.20 ERA and 12 strikeouts.

The Braves are turning to righty Julio Teheran (0-1, 7.07 ERA), who started 32 games last year and finished the season 11-13 overall with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He made four starts against Philadelphia a year ago and compiled a 1-2 record with a 5.79 ERA and 24 strikeouts.

Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 4.0 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The club’s starters have an ERA of 3.86, a WHIP of 1.41 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.5. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.88, a WHIP of 1.33 and a K/9 of 9.4. In nine games against NL East foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.91 and the bullpen’s ERA is 1.57.

The Atlanta offense has put up 5.9 runs per outing, including 6.0 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .245/.332/.402 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Braves’ hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies. Freeman is slashing .320/.493/.560 with 16 hits, 12 RBIs and 12 runs scored, while Albies has put up a line of .313/.333/.703 with 20 hits, five homers, 11 RBIs and 15 runs.

Freeman performed well against righty pitching at home last year. Across 160 such plate appearances, he slashed .362/.475/.638 (his overall season line was .307/.403/.586).

In the other dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.49 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.68, along with a K/9 of 8.59.

Phillies hitters have slashed .230/.325/.395 on their way to 5.6 runs scored per game this year, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (5-0 SU).

Philadelphia’s hitters have been led by left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez. Hoskins is slashing .326/.474/.581 with 14 hits, 11 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Hernandez is slashing .275/.422/.431 with 14 hits, two homers, five RBIs and 11 runs scored.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The Phillies have won eight of their last nine games SU.
  • Atlanta has recorded 24.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 22.0 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 12 over their last 10.