Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Free Pick

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Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies are ready to do battle against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in a Saturday night game. This NL showdown gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET and you can watch it on both ATPT and NSPA.

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

Bookmakers have Pittsburgh (-120) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+110). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to finish under 11 runs scored, then Vegas is teeing up -115 odds. Taking the over will return -105 odds. This game currently has a runline of Phillies +1.5 (-190) and Pirates -1.5 (+165).

The Pirates are 50-45 against the spread (ATS), but only 45-51 straight up (SU). The team’s gained 3.3 units for moneyline bettors while earning 4.3 units ATS. Pittsburgh has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Phillies have gone 51-47 SU this year and are 45-52 against the spread. Overall, the club has lost 4.2 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 7.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread just once in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.

Pirates games have a 55-36-4 over/under record so far in 2019. The Phillies have an over/under record of 47-46-4.

Zach Eflin will get the nod for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Eflin is 7-9 with a 4.16 ERA and 88 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Pirates this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Pirates will put the ball in the right hand of Joe Musgrove (6-8, 4.31 ERA), who has 90 strikeouts and 26 walks this season as well as a 1.23 WHIP. Musgrove did not re a start against the Phillies in 2018.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.10 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.98, along with a WHIP of 1.37.

The Phillies offense has slashed .246/.325/.422 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have paced Philadelphia’s offense. Hernandez is hitting .281/.332/.408 with seven home runs, 41 RBIs and 45 runs scored, while Segura (.272/.315/.431) is up to 10 homers, 43 RBIs and 57 runs scored.

For the home team, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have given up 5.3 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.03, a WHIP of 1.42 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.5. The bullpen has a 4.98 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 9.6 K/9.

Pittsburgh’s offense is putting up 4.7 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game over its last 10 games and 2.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .244/.291/.299 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.

First baseman Josh Bell and right fielder Starling Marte have led the Pirates’ offense this year. Bell is hitting .291/.366/.618 with 27 home runs, 84 RBIs and 71 runs scored, and Marte’s line is .272/.313/.476 with 16 homers, 52 RBIs, 59 runs and 13 stolen bases.

The Phillies have gained 3.3 units and are 34-38 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 34 of those games, compared to 34 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 6.2 units and are 40-32 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 39 of those games, compared to 30 that’ve cashed the under.

Phillies at Pirates Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The under has cashed in three of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
  • The Pirates have dropped six of their last seven games SU.
  • Pittsburgh has posted 23.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 18.4 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit 10 over their last 10.
  • The Phillies have a team OPS of .747 this season and an OPS of .738 against right-handed pitchers. The Pirates’ OPS sits at .756 overall and .778 against righties.