Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Free Preview

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will be facing off against their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET and SportsNet New York will broadcast the matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds

Philadelphia (+160) is the underdog to New York (-170) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 7 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds coming in at Phillies +1.5 runs (-135) and Mets -1.5 runs (+115).

The Mets are 64-77 straight up (SU) and 68-71 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 13.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 10.1 units (ATS). New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven. The Phillies have gone 74-67 SU this year and are 67-73 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 4.5 units for moneyline gamblers, but have lost 15.2 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

New York games have had an over/under record of 61-70-8 in 2018. Philadelphia has also been a good under bet with a total record of 61-73-6.

Vince Velasquez is getting the start for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Velasquez is 9-10 with a 4.10 ERA and 148 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with three strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against New York this year.

The Mets are handing the ball to righty Jacob deGrom (8-8, 1.68 ERA), who has 230 strikeouts and 42 walks, as well as a 0.96 WHIP. deGrom is 1-0 with 18 strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA across three starts against Philadelphia this year.

As a unit, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.78, a WHIP of 1.22 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.1. The bullpen has a 5.00 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. In 58 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.67 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.03.

The New York hitters are putting up 4.2 runs per contest, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .282/.339/.471 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Mets’ offense has been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto. Rosario is hitting .256/.295/.382 with seven home runs, 43 RBIs, 64 runs and 18 steals, and Conforto’s line is .232/.339/.411 with 22 homers, 59 RBIs and 65 runs.

For the visitors, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.97 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.98, along with a WHIP of 1.23.

Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.318/.397 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Philadelphia’s hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera, who’ve collectively swatted 32 home runs. Hernandez is slashing .257/.363/.359 with 11 home runs, 48 RBIs, 82 runs and 18 stolen bases, while Herrera is slashing .263/.319/.438 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 60 runs scored.

The Phillies have gained 3.8 units and are 52-54 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 45 of those games, as opposed to 57 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 7.6 units and are 49-50 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 45 of those games, compared to 48 that went under.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes

  • The over has hit in just two of Philadelphia’s last seven outings.
  • New York has posted 22.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 25.2 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.