Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs Free Pick

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Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies will head west to square off against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. NBC Sports Chicago will televise this NL showdown. The game gets underway at 8:05 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs Odds

The Cubs are 27-17 straight up (SU) and 22-21 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 5.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.8 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 27-19 SU and have gone 22-23 against the spread. In total, the team’s gained 2.8 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season, but have lost 2.0 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Chicago games have had an over/under record of 22-20-1 so far in 2019. The Phillies have been a decent under bet with a total record of 19-25-1.

Jake Arrieta is getting the start for Philadelphia. The right-handed Arrieta is 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA and 47 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Cubs this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Cubs are going with righty Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.14 ERA), who has 55 strikeouts and 33 walks as well as a 1.62 WHIP. Darvish did not register a start against the Phillies in 2018.

Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game and its starters own a 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.20 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.77, along with a WHIP of 1.35.

The Phillies offense has slashed .244/.332/.408 on its way to 5.0 runs scored per game this season, including 4.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led Philadelphia’s offense. Hernandez is hitting .301/.369/.458 with four home runs, 18 RBIs and 22 runs scored, while Segura (.322/.365/.490) is up to four homers, 19 RBIs and 29 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff has given up 4.1 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have a 3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.92 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.3 K/9.

The Chicago hitters are putting up 5.4 runs per contest, including 4.2 per game over its last 10 games and 5.8 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .254/.325/.480 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Cubs’ batters have been led by shortstop Javier Baez and third baseman Kris Bryant. Baez is hitting .319/.359/.595 with 11 home runs, 31 RBIs and 34 runs scored, and Bryant’s line is .272/.402/.562 with 11 homers, 32 RBIs and 36 runs scored.

The Phillies have gained 7.6 units and are 19-17 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 15 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cubs have netted 4.3 units and are 18-16 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 17 of those games, compared to 17 that went under the total.

Phillies at Cubs Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia has recorded 15 extra-base hits over its last five games. Chicago has 17 XBH over its last five.
  • The Philadelphia defense has allowed six errors over the last five games, compared to just two errors for Chicago over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
  • The Phillies have an OPS of .741 this season and an OPS of .735 against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs’ OPS stands at .799 overall and .808 versus righties.