Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies are paying a visit to Boston to play the Red Sox at Fenway Park. New England Sports Network will be showing this interleague matchup. The game is scheduled to get going at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Philadelphia (+135) as the underdog to Boston (-145). The total is sitting at 10 runs and bettors can wager on the over for even money (+100) and the under for -120. Runline odds sit at -160 for taking the Phillies +1.5 runs and +140 for the Red Sox -1.5.

The Red Sox are 73-33 straight up (SU) and 64-43 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 25.6 units for moneyline bettors and 20.2 units (ATS). Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Phillies have gone 58-46 SU this year and are 48-57 ATS. In total, the teams accumulated 10.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline, but have lost 17.2 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Boston games have an over/under record of 50-54-3 in 2018. The Phillies have been a decent under bet with a total record of 47-53-5.

Right-hander Jake Arrieta is the projected starter for the visiting Phillies. Arrieta is 8-6 with a 3.45 ERA and 80 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Red Sox this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 10.38 ERA and five strikeouts over four and one-third innings).

The Red Sox will put the ball in the left hand of Drew Pomeranz (1-4, 6.91 ERA, 1.82 WHIP), who’s got 40 strikeouts and 23 walks. Pomeranz did not record a start against the Phillies in 2017.

Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starters own a 3.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.00 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.94, along with a K-per-9 of 9.37.

The Phillies offense has slashed .237/.320/.399 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including 5.8 runs per game over the teams last 10 games and 5.8 per game over the teams last five contests (3-2 SU).

Outfielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez continue to lead Philadelphia’s hitters. Herrera is slashing .273/.328/.464 with 19 home runs, 58 RBIs and 53 runs scored, while Hernandez (.269/.374/.374) is up to eight homers, 35 RBIs, 66 runs and 14 stolen bases.

For the home team, Boston’s pitching staff has allowed 3.7 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 3.61, a WHIP of 1.20 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.7. The bullpen has a 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.6 K/9.

Boston’s offense has put up 5.3 runs per outing, including 4.7 per game over its last 10 games and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .254/.337/.491 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Red Sox offense has been led by J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts. Martinez is slashing .324/.387/.642 with 32 home runs, 86 RBIs and 76 runs scored, and Betts has put up a line of .346/.431/.666 with 25 homers, 56 RBIs, 83 runs and 20 stolen bases.

The Phillies have gained 3.1 units and are 11-12 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 11 of those games, as opposed to 11 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 24.5 units and are 50-30 ATS when facing a righty starter. The overs hit in 38 of those games, compared to 40 that went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Trends

  • The under has cashed in four of Boston’s last seven games.
  • Boston has recorded 21.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 22.4 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 22 home runs in their last 10 games, including 14 over their last five.