Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Matchup

Jonathan GarosArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face their NL East rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. The action is going to be nationally televised on Fox and the opening pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Odds

Philadelphia (+135) is coming into this one as the underdog to Atlanta (-145) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 8.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -110 for both the over and the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at Phillies +1.5 runs (-160) and Braves -1.5 runs (+140).

The Phillies are 78-75 SU and are 70-82 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.9 units for moneyline gamblers and 22.3 units ATS. Philadelphia is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 86-68 SU and 78-74 ATS. They’ve gained 18.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.6 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven outings and the over has cashed in six of those seven.

Braves games have had an over/under record of 74-72-6 in 2018. Phillies games have gone under 77 times, gone over 69 times and pushed on six occasions.

Right-hander Jake Arrieta will get the start for the visiting Phillies. Arrieta is 10-9 with a 3.77 ERA and 133 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with seven strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Atlanta this year.

The Braves will send righty Mike Foltynewicz (11-10, 2.90 ERA) to the mound. Foltynewicz has 188 strikeouts and 65 walks to his name, as well as a 1.13 WHIP. Foltynewicz is 1-1 with 26 strikeouts and a 1.96 ERA over four starts against Philadelphia this year.

As a unit, Atlanta’s pitchers have given up 4.1 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.59, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.6. The bullpen has a 4.13 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 68 games against divisional opponents, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.18 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.92.

Atlanta’s offense has put up 4.8 runs per outing, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .262/.366/.409 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

First baseman Freddie Freeman and right fielder Nick Markakis have led the Braves’ offense this year. Freeman is slashing .311/.391/.508 with 23 home runs, 93 RBIs and 94 runs scored, while Markakis has put up a line of .303/.369/.452 with 14 homers, 93 RBIs and 77 runs.

For the visiting squad, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.06 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.04, along with a K-per-9 of 9.12.

Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.317/.397 on their way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Philadelphia’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera. Hernandez is hitting .254/.358/.364 with 14 home runs, 55 RBIs, 88 runs and 19 stolen bases, while Herrera (.255/.313/.426) has produced 22 homers, 68 RBIs and 64 runs scored.

The Braves have gained 21.1 units and are 60-48 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 51 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve gone under.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Betting Notes,

  • The under has hit in just two of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
  • Atlanta has posted 21.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.8 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit eight over their last 10.