Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will head west to square off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. This NL matchup will get underway at 9:40 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Fox Sports Arizona to catch the game.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Vegas is listing Arizona (-130) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+120). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at +100 for over 8.5 runs and -120 for under 8.5. You can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at Phillies +1.5 runs (-175) and Diamondbacks -1.5 runs (+155).

The Diamondbacks are 62-50 straight up (SU) and 58-54 against the spread (ATS). The team’s gained 6.6 units for moneyline bettors and 8.9 units (ATS). Arizona has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven. On the other hand, the Phillies have gone 62-48 SU this year and are 53-57 ATS. In total, the team’s accumulated 13.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, but have lost 11.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has cashed in six of those seven.

Diamondbacks games have a 54-53-5 over/under record in 2018. The Phillies have been a decent under bet with a total record of 48-57-5.

Jake Arrieta is getting the nod for the visiting Phillies. The right-handed Arrieta is 9-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 87 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with two strikeouts and a 1.29 ERA against Arizona this year.

The Diamondbacks are turning to righty Zack Godley (12-6, 4.46 ERA), who has 130 strikeouts and 59 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.47. Godley has yet to face the Phillies this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 1.59 ERA and eight strikeouts across 5.2 innings).

Arizona’s pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 3.99, a WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.3. The bullpen has posted a solid ERA of just 3.12, a WHIP of 1.20 and a K/9 of 7.9.

The Arizona hitters are putting up 4.5 runs per outing, including 5.4 per game over its last 10 games and 5.4 per game over their last five. The team has hit .308/.381/.509 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

Left fielder David Peralta and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt have led the Diamondbacks’ offense this year. Peralta is hitting .296/.354/.503 with 17 home runs, 54 RBIs and 51 runs scored, and Goldschmidt’s line sits at .277/.385/.520 with 24 homers, 60 RBIs and 70 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.95 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.83, along with a K/9 of 9.29.

Phillies hitters have slashed .238/.321/.399 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Outfielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez continue to lead Philadelphia’s hitters. Herrera is slashing .275/.330/.460 with 19 home runs, 58 RBIs and 53 runs scored, while Hernandez (.262/.369/.371) has produced nine homers, 37 RBIs, 69 runs and 14 steals.

The Phillies have gained 10.3 units and are 40-45 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 37 of those games, as opposed to 44 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have netted 4.3 units and are 39-32 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 35 of those games, compared to 34 which went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – UNDER

Betting Notes

  • The over has cashed in six of Arizona’s last seven games.
  • Arizona has recorded 25.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 26.2 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit 17 home runs in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks have hit 13 over their last 10.