Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick

Jose VasquezArticles, Baseball, MLB

The Philadelphia Phillies will face the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Fox Sports Arizona is in line to televise this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 3:40 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Philadelphia (+140) is the underdog to Arizona (-150) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at +105 for the over and -125 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds coming in at Phillies +1.5 runs (-155) and Diamondbacks -1.5 runs (+135).

The Phillies are 63-49 SU and are 55-57 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 13.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, despite having lost 9.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread in each of its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are 63-51 SU and 58-56 ATS. The team has gained 5.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.9 units ATS. Arizona has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Arizona games have an over/under record of 54-55-5 in 2018. The Phillies have been a decent under bet with a total record of 48-59-5.

The right-handed Vince Velasquez will get the start for the visiting Phillies. Velasquez is 8-8 with a 3.80 ERA and 129 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with six strikeouts and a 7.71 ERA against Arizona this year.

The Diamondbacks are sending lefty Patrick Corbin (8-4, 3.25 ERA) to the mound. Corbin has 174 punchouts and 37 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.05. Corbin hasn’t faced the Phillies yet this year, but he made two starts against them in 2017, putting together a 1-1 record with a 2.13 ERA and 10 strikeouts.

As a unit, Arizona’s pitchers have given up 3.9 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 3.96, a WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.4. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 3.06, a WHIP of 1.18 and a K/9 of 7.9.

The Arizona offense has put up 4.5 runs per outing, including 5.2 per game over its last 10 games and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .273/.354/.470 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Diamondbacks’ offense has been led by left fielder David Peralta and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Peralta is slashing .298/.355/.516 with 19 home runs, 56 RBIs and 53 runs scored, while Goldschmidt’s line is .274/.385/.513 with 24 homers, 60 RBIs and 70 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 8.83 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.84, along with a K/9 of 9.27.

Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.321/.396 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have paced Philadelphia’s offense. Herrera is hitting .277/.333/.463 with 19 home runs, 61 RBIs and 54 runs scored, while Hernandez is hitting .260/.367/.367 with nine homers, 37 RBIs, 70 runs and 14 stolen bases.

The Phillies have gained 3.4 units and are 13-12 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 11 of those games, as opposed to 13 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have netted 5.3 units and are 39-33 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 35 of those games, compared to 35 that went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – UNDER

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia has tallied 11 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Arizona has 19 XBH over its last five.
  • The Diamondbacks have won three of their last four games SU.
  • Philadelphia has recorded 19.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.0 over its last five.
  • The Phillies have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.